Posts Tagged ‘Swing state’
Politisite Political Projections – Electoral College – 2012
Politisite Political Projections – Electoral College – 2012 By Albert N. Milliron Methodology: Politisite Political Projections takes in to consideration many factors when utilizing a particular poll for our model. We weigh polls differently based on their previous general election accuracy. We toss polls that have a Margin of Error (MoE) that exceeds +/-5%. We further take in to consideration the pollsters assumptions of the makeup of the electorate by considering the average PVI for the State polled. Some pollsters continue to use a model that reflects party affiliation of the 2008 election. According to Gallup the make-up of the electorate, nationally at least, has changed from a D+11 to a nearly even distribution between Democrats and Republicans in 2012. [...]
Nine Electoral College predictions have Obama ahead
The Denver Post has put out a compilation of Nine Electoral College Maps that suggest an Obama win next Tuesday. It would probably have been better journalism to include those who disagree with the conclusion. For example, Michael Barone has come to a different conclusion. We at Politisite still see the race as a Toss-up as our map suggests. We also have provided our election Politisite Political Projections that show at least eight states are tossups and could go either way. But to be fair we thought it would be good for our readers to see what others are saying about the Obama, Romney Presidential election: With the clock ticking down to Election Day, most political prognosticators see President Obama winning re-election, though his Electoral College count [...]
Romney, narrows gap with women, leads Obama in the swing states
Mitt Romney leads President Obama by four percentage points among likely voters in the nation's top battlegrounds, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and he has growing enthusiasm among women to thank. As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters in 12 crucial swing states finds female voters much more engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney. The Republican nominee has pulled within one point of the president among women who are likely voters, 48%-49%, and leads by 8 points among men. via Poll: Romney, narrows gap with women, leads Obama in the swing states. XY8UR54ZMU8U
Latest swing state poll snapshot
One week ago, we took a look at the swing state polls, which were just starting to show some movement in the wake of the first Obama-Romney debate; now on the eve of their second face off, we can certainly see how things changed in favor of the Republican nominee. It is important to note that there are lot of opinions on whether this poll shift is temporary or a more fundamental shift. I ran into a friend of mine over the weekend who does polling for Democratic candidates and causes - and she was indignant that the polls are simply flat wrong. Republicans obviously disagree and disagree strongly with that type of assessment. So, let's take a look at the ten swing states, from largest to smallest. * Florida (29 Electoral Votes) - Two weeks ago, the President held a several [...]
Polling On the Eve of the Debate
by Bob Grundfest The pace of polling has slowed down since last week, but the overall trend is still towards Barack Obama in the swing states. His national numbers are somewhat closer, but Gallup (RV poll) still has him up six and Rasmussen has him leading by one, which is down two points from Monday. New Quinnipiac and CNN polls have Obama ahead by four and three, respectively, and the Washington Times has him up nine. There has been a great deal of debate in the polling world, that has spilled over into the general population, about poll methodologies and whether the national polling firms are oversampling Democrats to arrive at their numbers. My view is that the polling firms are seeing a shift in the number of people who are identifying themselves as Democrats and are adjusting [...]
CNN Poll: Romney Leads in Battleground States
President Barack Obama maintains a slight and statistically insignificant edge over Mitt Romney nationally, according to a new CNN/ORC International poll, but Romney leads Obama in critical battleground states. Obama leads Romney nationally by three percentage points, 49 to 46, with 4 percent of those saying they would vote for another candidate or neither candidate, which is inside the poll's margin of error. In the 15 states CNN calls battleground states — Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin — Romney leads Obama, 51 percent to 43 percent. Read more on Newsmax.com: CNN Poll: Romney Leads in Battleground States
Report: Voters leave Democratic Party in Key Swing States
By Albert N. Milliron, Managing Editor With Gridlock in DC, The Burger King President, Energy jobs on ice, Fast and Furious, Green Jobs flops, and Foreign Policy in Shambles has cost the Presidents party a mass exodus to independents or the GOP in Key Swing States they President must win to secure the 2012 presidency. While there has been movement from the GOP to independent as well, the percentage move are away from progressive parties is significantly greater. A move of just a few percentage points can have devastating consequences on the Democratic party as a whole. We learned just today that the DNCC has made ad buys in states that were well within the Democrats reach just two years ago. ABC News has the full story President Obama’s uphill battle to re-election is [...]
Obama Campaign posts 2012 battleground state strategy Video
Battleground States Director Mitch Stewart reports on the nuts and bolts of what volunteers are building in communities across the country. via YouTube - Strategy Update: What We're Building This Summer.
