Posts Tagged ‘RealClearPolitics’
New Gallup Poll Should Have Chicago Sweating…Profusely
I’ve now seen three commentaries on the latest Gallup poll, and they’re telling a consistent story: Chigago is, or should be, sweating profusely about these latest polling numbers. And the evidence is they are. The Eye Candy: National Polls. National polls are great and continue to give encouraging news of a Mitt 2-4% lead. The RealClearPolitics average of polls gives Mitt a solid 1% edge. The latest poll in that group, a Rasmussen poll of 1,500 likely voters from October 25 to October 27 (yesterday), gives Mitt a 3% lead. The underlying data show Mitt is winning more Republicans (90%) than Obama is Democrats (85%), but the big news on the national front is that Mitt is leading among independents by 11%. But national polls are really the eye candy of the presidential politics. [...]
What happens if there is a 269-269 Tie in the Electoral College?- Election 2012
With the 2012 Presidential getting closer just a few weeks before election day, folks are beginning to wonder what would happen if their were a 269-269 electoral vote tie in the electoral college. 269-269 Electoral Vote tie - Mitt Romney (red) and Barack Obama (blue). Image from CNN's Electoral College calculator. This week Real Clear Politics and other Electoral Map assemblers have removed nearly 50 electoral votes from the Obama column, leaving just a 20 vote difference between Obama and Romney. While no one wants there to be a crisis in the electoral college, there appears to be several scenarios that allow for such a tie. We came across an analysis article by the Washington Examiners Philip Klein. Here is what he had to say: As Mitt Romney continues to make gains in [...]
Presidential Polling Report: August 8, 2012
by Bob Grundfest Well, where does the time go? Not only should this report have come out on August 6, there are only three months left until the election. Summer doldrums indeed. The silver lining is that a slew of polls have been released in the past couple of days that haven't actually defined the race, but are giving us some idea of where the election will be won or lost. Last week's jobs report had mixed numbers for both candidates. The topline job creation report looked good, but a look deep into the report showed that the economy is just not sustaining much momentum, even though President Obama will be able to say that all of the jobs lost in the early days of the recession have been gained back. As for the political numbers, Obama holds a 47.8-43.9% lead in the latest [...]
Electoral College Forecast Comparisons
FiveThirtyEight’s initial 2012 presidential forecast found President Obama as a slight favorite to win re-election. These projections are unique, both in means and ends, but the FiveThirtyEight model is operating in a crowded field. State-by-state race ratings have been published by The New York Times (these come from the politics desk and are distinct from FiveThirtyEight’s forecast), The Washington Post, RealClearPolitics, Pollster, CBS News and NPR (actually, many more projections are available, but these maps use the same five-level ratings scale, making comparisons easier). Although each map takes a slightly different approach to projecting state-by-state results, they all have Mr. Obama leading Mitt Romney in “solid” and “leaning” electoral votes. It’s in the [...]
Bad news for Obama – The Cook Report
By Charlie Cook Regular readers of this column know that in analyzing the 2012 presidential race, I have been preoccupied—some would say obsessed—with the state and direction of the U.S. economy. Presidential elections have many moving parts and can turn on many things, but rarely is a single factor more important than the economy when an incumbent is up for reelection. The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, conducted among 1,000 adults from April 13-17, supports that view. Overall, 49 percent said they approve of the job that President Obama is doing, and 46 percent said they disapprove. The poll, conducted by Democrat Peter Hart and Republican Bill McInturff, pegs Obama’s approval rating just 1 point higher than the current averages by RealClearPolitics and Huffpost’s [...]
Charlie Cook: Predictions that President Obama will coast to victory premature
Presidential elections have a lot of moving parts. They rarely turn on any single factor or issue. Take, for example, the tensions over Tehran’s nuclear aspirations and the possibility of an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities by either Israel or the United States. In five minutes, the tone and direction of this election could completely change. But of the “known unknowables,” as former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld might say, the big one is what happens with the economy between now and Nov. 6. Recent polls have shown President Obama putting some daylight between himself and presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney. The president’s advantage has ranged from 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent, nationwide in a March 25-26 Gallup/USA Today poll, to as much as 11 points in a [...]
Romney Leads Obama in last two RealClearPolitics Polls – Election 2012
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Polling Data Poll Date Sample Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread RCP Average 3/25 - 4/12 -- 46.8 44.2 Obama +2.6 FOX News 4/9 - 4/11 910 RV 44 46 Romney +2 Rasmussen Tracking 4/10 - 4/12 1500 LV 44 48 Romney +4 ABC News/Wash Post 4/5 - 4/8 RV 51 44 Obama +7 IBD/CSM/TIPP 3/30 - 4/5 816 RV 46 38 Obama +8 USA Today/Gallup 3/25 - 3/26 901 RV 49 45 Obama +4 See All General Election: Romney vs. Obama Polling Data via RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama.
Gary Johnson Drops GOP Bid to run as Libertarian
We don't blame him, he was snubbed by the GOP and denied debates when he was polling at same rates as the minor candidates. At the same time, Johnson is not a Republican, He is a Libertarian. Many Libertarians end up in the GOP due to it being a power and money party that can move one along. He would have never become New Mexico Governor as a Libertarian. Outlook If Ron Paul is not the nominee and doesn't run as a third party candidate, Gary Johnson could get those votes. This could cost the GOP the Presidency. Governor Johnson will announce his intention to run as a Libertarian on December 28 There have been rumors circulating for a month or so now that former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson was considering leaving the Republican race for the Presidency, where he’s [...]
2012 Republican Presidential Nomination – Politisite Poll Average (PPA)
2012 Republican Presidential Nomination By Albert N. Milliron Politisite Poll Average (PPA) - Note the Politisite Poll Average takes the high poll and the low poll and throw them out (e.g. like Olympic scores). We think by doing so we eliminate polls that over or understate the results due to their methodology. We do not name the polls we throw out because, we do not want to give the opinion that certain polls are"bad" or others are "good" . We simply believe that by tossing the high and low poll, the number provide a better representation of the actual position of the candidates during the time we report. Even with our methodology, the numbers are within a few tenth to a few percentage points of the well known Real Clear Politics Average (RCP) The RCP Number will be [...]
With Gingrich Staff Gone, speculation sparks of Gov. Perry gearing up for White House Run
With Newt Gingrich top campaign departures, a a few announcing support to other campaigns, There is speculation that Dave Carney and Ron Johnson, who were instrumental in Getting Texas Governor Rick Perry elected, that they may be tapped for his Potential bid for the Presidency. Perry has been dropping some hints that he has been thoughtful about a potential run. Now with his two top advisers looking for work, Perry may be seriously considering getting in. I would keep my eyes on Carney and Johnson, if they don't land a job right away, I would place a few bets on Perry running for the top office. Those Texas electoral votes usually go GOP but can be helpful in a sweep of the south with the 2000 census pulling several electoral votes further to the south and west.... the 2012 [...]
