Posts Tagged ‘projections’
Electoral College Forecast Comparisons
FiveThirtyEight’s initial 2012 presidential forecast found President Obama as a slight favorite to win re-election. These projections are unique, both in means and ends, but the FiveThirtyEight model is operating in a crowded field. State-by-state race ratings have been published by The New York Times (these come from the politics desk and are distinct from FiveThirtyEight’s forecast), The Washington Post, RealClearPolitics, Pollster, CBS News and NPR (actually, many more projections are available, but these maps use the same five-level ratings scale, making comparisons easier). Although each map takes a slightly different approach to projecting state-by-state results, they all have Mr. Obama leading Mitt Romney in “solid” and “leaning” electoral votes. It’s in the [...]
Wisconsin Recall Election – Politisite Political Projections – Walker +5%
Politisite provides projections based on a Momentum modality similar to that used in projecting stock prices. Our modality projects what the election results will look like on election day. Politisite does NOT endorse any candidate during the primary process. Further, we do not receive funding from any political campaign. Having said that, here are our projections for the Wisconsin Recall Election for June 5, 2012 Governor Scott Walker - 52% (+5) Mayor Tom Barrett - 47% We believe that these results will reflect the percentage once all the votes have been counted. We do see Walker with some upward momentum on election day. Meaning Walker could exceed our expectations. Even so, we think the outcome will reflect what we have outlined here. Our Margin of Error (MOE) for the [...]
2012 Electoral College Projections – April 27, 2012
COOK POLITICAL REPORT ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTING RATINGS Solid Dem (13 states) Likely Dem (1 states) Lean Dem (5 states) Toss Up (7 states) Lean Rep (2 states) Likely Rep (4 states) Solid Rep (19 states) California (55) Connecticut (7) Delaware (3) Hawaii (4) Illinois (20) Maryland (10) Mass’setts (11) New Jersey (14) New York (29) Rhode Island (4) Vermont (3) Washington (12) Dist. of Col. (3) Oregon (7) Maine (4) Michigan (16) Minnesota (10) New Mexico (5) Wisconsin (10) Colorado (9) Florida (29) Iowa (6) Nevada (6) Ohio (18) Pennsylvania (20) Virginia (13) New Hamp. (4) North Car. (15) Arizona (11) Georgia (16) Indiana (11) Missouri (10) Alabama (9) Alaska (3) Arkansas [...]
Politisite Political Projections: Michigan Primary Tuesday February 28, 2012
Politisite provides projections based on a Momentum modality similar to that used in projecting stock prices. Politisite does NOT endorse any candidate during the primary process. Further, we do not receive funding from any political campaign. Having said that, here are our projections for the Michigan Primary for Tuesday February 28, 2012 Mitt Romney – 36.5% (Tie) Rick Santorum – 36.5% (Tie) Ron Paul – 12% Newt Gingrich – 9.5% Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich have flat momentum, Ron Paul has slight downward momentum. We believe that Romney will eek out a victory here. The Numbers tell us that either Romney or Santorum could win. Since we are dealing with a 4 percent margin of error, Either candidate could win by as much as 8 points. We think that the winner [...]
Politisite Political Projections: New Hampshire Primary January 10, 2012
Politisite provides projections based on a Momentum modality similar to that used in projecting stock prices. Politisite does NOT endorse any candidate during the primary process. Further, we do not receive funding from any political campaign. Having said that, here are our projections for the New Hampshire Primary for January 10, 2012 Mitt Romney - 40% (+23) Ron Paul - 18% John Huntsman - 13% (Upward Momentum) Rick Santorum - 12% Newt Gingrich - 9% Buddy Roemer 2% Rick Perry - 1% Other - 5% We believe that these results will reflect the percentage once all the votes have been counted. We do see one candidate with some upward momentum at the last couple of days of polling. Jon Huntsman could get an additional point or two. Even o, we think the outcome will [...]
Key races to watch on Election Eve
It’s an especially challenging year for dozens of Democratic incumbents. Here's a quick rundown of the party's most vulnerable members. AL-2: REP. BOBBY BRIGHT: The freshman has voted against key Democratic bills and even said he won’t vote for Nancy Pelosi as speaker, but in this GOP-leaning district, it still might not be enough to save him. AZ-5: REP. HARRY MITCHELL: The two-term Democrat faces a rematch with Republican David Schweikert after defeating him easily in 2008, but this year the tide is against Mitchell in this GOP-oriented district. AR-1: OPEN (BERRY): With Democratic Rep. Marion Berry retiring, his former chief of staff, Chad Causey, has grabbed the party’s mantle, but he faces a stiff challenge from Republican nominee Rick Crawford. CA-11: REP. JERRY [...]
Ten days to Mid-Term Elections, where does your State Senate race Stand?
It's always been unlikely that Republicans will pick up the 10 seats needed to take control of the Senate, but a gain of seven or eight seats would be enough for the GOP to effectively block any Democratic proposal and perhaps even move some pieces of legislation. In fact, getting to 48 or 49 members might put Republicans in position to woo enough party switchers to make a majority, depending on the post-election composition of the Senate Democratic caucus. It's not unimaginable that Democrat Ben Nelson of Nebraska or Independent Joe Lieberman of Connecticut could be enticed into joining a GOP majority. Or, if West Virginia's Joe Manchin holds on to win the special election in the Mountain State, he, who is suffering so much this cycle for his party affiliation, might be tempted [...]
Super Tuesday: Politisite Political Projections
Super Tuesday: Politisite Political ProjectionsWe are finally Here! From Alaska to the North and Georgia to the south and New York to California, This is the closest thing to a National Primary this country has ever seen. The possible outcomes of each contest is mind boggling as in some cases with delegate distribution will winner takes all, in others a percentage will be given. It is different for each party as Democrats have one way of distributing delegates and Republicans have another. The same goes with voting. In some states you can vote for who you want in either party, in others you have to vote for a candidate within your party, in still others independents can vote in a primary, in others they can’t. Confused?, Well you ought to be its Super [...]
