Posts Tagged ‘Opinion poll’
Analysis: Most Accurate political polls from 2012 presidential election
Poll Accuracy in the 2012 Presidential Election Here is a list of the Most accurate Political Polls for the 2012 Presidential election between President Back Obama and Challenger Mitt Romney from Costas Panagopoulos, Ph.D. Department of Political Science, Fordham University 1. PPP (D)* 1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP* 3. YouGov* 4. Ipsos/Reuters* 5. Purple Strategies 6. NBC/WSJ 6. CBS/NYT 6. YouGov/Economist 9. UPI/CVOTER 10. IBD/TIPP 11. Angus-Reid* 12. ABC/WP* 13. Pew Research* 13. Hartford Courant/UConn* 15. CNN/ORC 15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA 15. Politico/GWU/Battleground 15. FOX News 15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics 15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics 15. American Research Group 15. Gravis Marketing 23. Democracy Corps (D)* 24. Rasmussen 24. Gallup 26. NPR 27. National [...]
Video – Understanding Political Polling
Scott Keeter talked about how polls are designed and written, conducted, and analyzed, and he responded to telephone calls and electronic communications. He also discussed the technological challenges facing the polling industry, what polls do and do not indicate, polling samples, weighting, and margin of error. via Understanding Polling - C-SPAN Video Library. Related: Resources for the 2012 Election
Gallup Suspends Daily Tracking poll due to effects of Sandy
Gallup will not conduct daily tracking surveys for a second night, Tuesday, Oct. 30, due to the ongoing effects of Superstorm Sandy and will continue to reassess the situation on a day-to-day basis. Gallup will provide an update on Wednesday about plans from that point forward. via Gallup.Com - The Queue by Lymari Morales: Update on Gallup Polling Following Superstorm Sandy.
Polling Report: October 23, 2012
by Bob Grundfest The debates are done, the swing states remain swingy, and the money is flowing. Must be the last two weeks of the campaign. And true to the divided nature of the country, there are two narratives for the final push. The first says that Mitt Romney has the momentum because of his first debate performance and the new perception, pushed very hard by his campaign, that Romney is really a moderate, not the scary conservative that Obama said he was in the summer. In many ways, Mitt has won his argument because, depending upon the poll, he has become more likable and he's improved his standing with women. Romney's national poll numbers are up and he's made inroads into states that were solidly behind the president, such as Florida and North Carolina. The second says [...]
Romney, narrows gap with women, leads Obama in the swing states
Mitt Romney leads President Obama by four percentage points among likely voters in the nation's top battlegrounds, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and he has growing enthusiasm among women to thank. As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters in 12 crucial swing states finds female voters much more engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney. The Republican nominee has pulled within one point of the president among women who are likely voters, 48%-49%, and leads by 8 points among men. via Poll: Romney, narrows gap with women, leads Obama in the swing states. XY8UR54ZMU8U
Analysis: Most Accurate political polls from 2008 presidential election
2008 Pollster Report Card The table below is an assessment of pollster performance in the 2008 Presidential election. The pollsters were graded on both the accuracy of their final poll (popular vote) and the consistency of their polling during the month of October. The overall score is a weighted average of their Accuracy and Consistency numbers. The weighting is 75% accuracy and 25% consistency. Formula details are at the bottom of this page. Overall Poll Score Grade Accuracy Consistency Rasmussen Reports 91% A- 92% 86% Ipsos/McClatchy 89% B+ 92% 79% CNN/Opinion Research 88% B+ 92% 77% Fox [...]
Latest Political Polls – 2012 President – Romney 46%, Obama 44%, Other 4%
The first presidential tracking poll with likely voters (LV) following the Supreme Court Decision shows show Mitt Romney with a slight lead over President Obama. This poll also has four percent going to a third party candidate with five percent undecided . Rasmussen continues to be the most accurate Presidential tracking poll based on final results of the last two elections. The Real Clear Politics Average has President Obama leading by 3.4% which is in the Margin of error of most polls listed. Mitt Romney (Photo credit: politisite.com) The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney attracting 46% of the vote, while President Obama earns 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are [...]
CNN Opinion Research Poll – September 23-25, 2011 Obama Approval and GOP Presidential Candidate Field Analysis
CNN Opinion Research Poll - September 23-25, 2011 Obama Approval and GOP Presidential Candidate Field Analysis By Albert N. Milliron, Managing Editor, Iron Mill Interactive Media The latest CNN poll was conducted by telephonic interviews with 1,010 adults. The poll was conducted by ORC International between September 23-25, 2011. The margin of error (MOE) was +/- 3 percentage points. 917 of those interview were registered voters. Despite what people think, over 200 of the interviews were by cell phone contacts. Our review will look at this poll and the previous poll from the same organization. This way, we one can be assured that comparisons are closely related to methodology and error margins. President Obama President Obama's approval rating is currently 45% up 2 [...]
Gallup: Obama approval rating drops below 40 percent for the first time
In a three day average poll issued by Gallup today, President Obama's Approval rating hit a low of 39%. The poll suggests that 54% of respondents disapprove of Obama's performance. While Obama enjoyed a surge after the Osama Bin Ladin killing, the debt ceiling debate, high unemployment, with an unemployment rate of 9.1% and low growth calculated at 0.4% for July and the perceived lack of leadership have all contributed to the President's slip in the polls. A Rasmussen daily tracking poll shows the presidents approval index at -22. The approval index is calculated by subtracting those that strongly approve of the President's performance (20%) from those that strongly disapprove (42%). Read more at President Obama's Approval Rating Hits Dubious Low of 39% - K&E Citizen [...]
ABC News/Washington Post Poll show Obama Job Approval at 9 month low
President Obama's Job approval has tracked back to his lowest point since August 2010. Obama had a 68 Percent Approval Rating back in February 2009. The latest Polling data shows Obama at 47 percent. Couple that with and unemployment rate at 9.1 percent and that spells a recipe for an uphill batten for re-election. The last President who got reelected with an unemployment rate over 7.1 percent was Franklin Delano Roosevelt ABC News/Washington Post Poll. June 2-5, 2011. N=1,002 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.5. "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?" Approve Disapprove Unsure % % % 6/2-5/11 47 49 4 4/14-17/11 47 50 3 3/10-13/11 51 45 4 [...]
