Posts Tagged ‘matchups’
Hispanic Voters Put Other Issues Before Immigration
PRINCETON, NJ -- U.S. Hispanics prioritize immigration, healthcare, and unemployment to equal degrees, according to a new USA Today/Gallup poll asking about the importance of six national policy issues. Twenty percent of Hispanics each mention one of the top three issues as mattering most to them, while 17% name economic growth, 11% name the gap between the rich and poor, and 7% name the federal budget deficit. Hispanic registered voters, however, put healthcare and all economic issues before immigration, which 12% name as their most important issue. The findings are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews with 1,753 Hispanic adults in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia conducted April 16-May 31. The sample includes 1,005 Hispanic registered voters who, on a weighted [...]
Utah conducts last primaries before parties’ big dances
The primary/caucus season draws to a close Tuesday as Utah voters select the final batch of candidates for the November election. The Texas primary pushed presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney across the 1,144-delegate threshold needed to secure the nomination at the Republican National Convention in August in Tampa, Fla. All major candidates save for Ron Paul abandoned their campaigns. Paul, the U.S. representative from Texas, said he wasn't actively traveling the campaign trail, focusing instead on state party conventions leading up to the RNC event in Tampa. Utah has 40 delegates up for grabs. Romney already has 1,433 delegates, RealClearPolitics.com reported. One race Congress watchers are tracking is the primary match-up between veteran GOP Sen. [...]
A breakdown of the most recent Obama versus Romney polls
Over the last week, four new national polls have been released on the 2012 presidential race. As seen below, the polls vary widely. At the two extremes, there is an 18-point swing between the Rasmussen Reports poll showing Mitt Romney ahead, and a Bloomberg poll showing President Obama with a large lead. The following article attempts to go beyond a mere listing of polls by providing some analysis as to why each poll might be credible or not credible. Below, a breakdown of each poll is provided based on their sampling, performance in the 2008 presidential election, and any pollster ratings that are available. According to a simple average of all the polls President Obama has retaken the lead over the last week. A Real Clear Politics average of 9 different polls over the last three [...]
Bloomberg Pollster Defends Survey Showing Obama With Big Lead
Bloomberg pollster J. Ann Selzer ignited something of a political firestorm this week when her national survey for the news organization showed President Obama leading GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney among likely voters by 13 points, 53-40 percent. Most recent polls have shown the race much closer. Some have Obama with a slight lead, others have Romney up by a little. A Pew Research Center poll released Thursday, for example, shows Obama up 50-46 percent, while the same-day Gallup daily tracking poll has Romney leading 47-45 percent. The results of Selzer's survey, not surprisingly, have spawned countless columns, blog posts and questions about the results, her methods and what we should make of it all. [...]
The Obama-Romney Matchup: Closer Than You Think
Polls Suggest a November Nail-Biter Still wondering if this year’s presidential election will be close? Well, how about a look at the latest Gallup polling numbers over the last several days. Since the beginning of June, the key numbers in the Gallup Daily Tracking poll are 46 and 45 percent. In that time period, President Obama scored 46 percent support on six days, to 45 percent for Mitt Romney, his expected Republican challenger. Romney has hit 46 percent seven times, and each time the president came up short with 45 percent. In other words, even though we are months from the election, this race is looking really close and any number of factors could make a difference in November. President Obama gets only a slight edge in some daily tracking polls. Photo: AP With all that [...]
Obama leads Romney by 13 points in new poll. Can that be right?
The preponderance of evidence suggests that a new Bloomberg poll is probably an outlier. Other polls put Obama ahead of Mitt Romney in the presidential race by one or two points. By Peter Grier, Staff writer / June 20, 2012 This combination of 2012 and 2011 file photos shows Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at the University of Chicago on March 19, left, and President Barack Obama in Osawatomie, Kan. on Dec. 6, 2011. Carolyn Kaster/AP Enlarge 0 Wow. A new poll out [...]
Bloomberg poll: 64% agree with new immigration policy
Will Barack Obama get a bump from taking executive action on immigration policy? A new poll from Bloomberg doesn’t directly inform on that point, but the change itself gets nearly two-thirds support among likely voters polled. That, however, comes with a couple of huge caveats: President Barack Obama is winning the opening round in the battle over immigration, according to a Bloomberg poll released today, putting Republicans on the defensive with his decision to end the deportations of some illegal immigrants brought to the U.S. as children Sixty-four percent of likely voters surveyed after Obama’s June 15 announcement said they agreed with the policy, while 30 percent said they disagreed. Independents backed the decision by better than a two-to-one margin. First, the sample [...]
Race Matters: Why Gallup Poll Finds Less Support For President Obama
WASHINGTON -- With the race for president between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama now shifting into high gear, politicians, journalists and the general public are scrutinizing each new poll, with every small swing in one direction or another elevated to outsized importance. Among the many polls released every day, one always stands out. The Gallup Poll is arguably the most trusted survey brand in the world, a name virtually synonymous with public opinion polling. It has measured presidential job approval and vote preference without interruption since the 1940s and now conducts a daily tracking poll that reaches more than 3,600 adults every week -- a volume of data that dwarfs that produced by other firms. As a result, Gallup's numbers enjoy unique influence and public prominence. Over the [...]
Statistical Noise in Election Polls
Some headlines on Tuesday suggested that Barack Obama has a problem among his African-American base. The warrant for this claim is a new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina, in which Mr. Obama won only 76 percent of the black vote, compared with 20 percent for Mitt Romney. Mr. Obama won 95 percent of the African-American vote nationwide in 2008, and 95 percent in North Carolina, according to exit polls.This is not a great poll for Mr. Obama. Public Policy Polling, which conducts polls for Democratic clients as well as issues them on its own behalf, has had a Democratic “lean” so far this cycle. Mr. Obama trails Mr. Romney by 2 points in their North Carolina poll, and that might imply a somewhat larger disadvantage for him if another polling firm were to survey the state.Our [...]
Obama’s White Base Shows Cracks Compared With 2008
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Daily tracking indicates Barack Obama is receiving less support in the 2012 presidential election from some of the white subgroups that gave him the strongest support in 2008. These include non-Hispanic white registered voters who are 18 to 29 years old, female postgrads, and the nonreligious, among others. Obama won the 2008 election comfortably over John McCain, but the 2012 election contest with Mitt Romney is shaping up to be more competitive, with the two statistically tied since Gallup started Daily tracking on the race in April. These findings partly explain why. For this analysis, Gallup has compared Obama's current support among registered voters, based on Gallup Daily tracking from May 21-June 10 with 7,343 registered voters, to his support among [...]
