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Hispanic Voters Put Other Issues Before Immigration

Hispanic Voters Put Other Issues Before Immigration

PRINCETON, NJ — U.S. Hispanics prioritize immigration, healthcare, and unemployment to equal degrees, according to a new USA Today/Gallup poll asking about the importance of six national policy issues. Twenty percent of Hispanics each mention one of the top three issues as mattering most to them, while 17% name economic growth, 11% name the gap between the rich and poor, and 7% name the federal budget deficit. Hispanic registered voters, […]

Utah conducts last primaries before parties’ big dances

Utah conducts last primaries before parties’ big dances

The primary/caucus season draws to a close Tuesday as Utah voters select the final batch of candidates for the November election. The Texas primary pushed presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney across the 1,144-delegate threshold needed to secure the nomination at the Republican National Convention in August in Tampa, Fla. All major candidates save for Ron Paul abandoned their campaigns. Paul, the U.S. representative from Texas, said he wasn’t actively […]

A breakdown of the most recent Obama versus Romney polls

A breakdown of the most recent Obama versus Romney polls

Over the last week, four new national polls have been released on the 2012 presidential race. As seen below, the polls vary widely. At the two extremes, there is an 18-point swing between the Rasmussen Reports poll showing Mitt Romney ahead, and a Bloomberg poll showing President Obama with a large lead. The following article attempts to go beyond a mere listing of polls by providing some analysis as to […]

Bloomberg Pollster Defends Survey Showing Obama With Big Lead

Bloomberg Pollster Defends Survey Showing Obama With Big Lead

Bloomberg pollster J. Ann Selzer ignited something of a political firestorm this week when her national survey for the news organization showed President Obama leading GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney among likely voters by 13 points, 53-40 percent. Most recent polls have shown the race much closer. Some have Obama with a slight lead, others have Romney up by a little. A Pew Research Center poll released Thursday, for example, […]

The Obama-Romney Matchup: Closer Than You Think

The Obama-Romney Matchup: Closer Than You Think

Polls Suggest a November Nail-Biter Still wondering if this year’s presidential election will be close?  Well, how about a look at the latest Gallup polling numbers over the last several days. Since the beginning of June, the key numbers in the Gallup Daily Tracking poll are 46 and 45 percent.  In that time period, President Obama scored 46 percent support on six days, to 45 percent for Mitt Romney, his […]

Obama leads Romney by 13 points in new poll. Can that be right?

Obama leads Romney by 13 points in new poll. Can that be right?

The preponderance of evidence suggests that a new Bloomberg poll is probably an outlier. Other polls put Obama ahead of Mitt Romney in the presidential race by one or two points. By Peter Grier, Staff writer / June 20, 2012 This combination of 2012 and 2011 file photos shows Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at the University of Chicago on March 19, left, and President Barack Obama in […]

Bloomberg poll: 64% agree with new immigration policy

Bloomberg poll: 64% agree with new immigration policy

Will Barack Obama get a bump from taking executive action on immigration policy?  A new poll from Bloomberg doesn’t directly inform on that point, but the change itself gets nearly two-thirds support among likely voters polled.  That, however, comes with a couple of huge caveats: President Barack Obama is winning the opening round in the battle over immigration, according to a Bloomberg poll released today, putting Republicans on the defensive with his […]

Race Matters: Why Gallup Poll Finds Less Support For President Obama

Race Matters: Why Gallup Poll Finds Less Support For President Obama

WASHINGTON — With the race for president between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama now shifting into high gear, politicians, journalists and the general public are scrutinizing each new poll, with every small swing in one direction or another elevated to outsized importance. Among the many polls released every day, one always stands out. The Gallup Poll is arguably the most trusted survey brand in the world, a name virtually synonymous […]

Statistical Noise in Election Polls

Statistical Noise in Election Polls

Some headlines on Tuesday suggested that Barack Obama has a problem among his African-American base. The warrant for this claim is a new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina, in which Mr. Obama won only 76 percent of the black vote, compared with 20 percent for Mitt Romney. Mr. Obama won 95 percent of the African-American vote nationwide in 2008, and 95 percent in North Carolina, according to exit […]

Obama’s White Base Shows Cracks Compared With 2008

Obama’s White Base Shows Cracks Compared With 2008

PRINCETON, NJ — Gallup Daily tracking indicates Barack Obama is receiving less support in the 2012 presidential election from some of the white subgroups that gave him the strongest support in 2008. These include non-Hispanic white registered voters who are 18 to 29 years old, female postgrads, and the nonreligious, among others. Obama won the 2008 election comfortably over John McCain, but the 2012 election contest with Mitt Romney is […]