Posts Tagged ‘election 2012’
Analysis: Most Accurate political polls from 2012 presidential election
Poll Accuracy in the 2012 Presidential Election Here is a list of the Most accurate Political Polls for the 2012 Presidential election between President Back Obama and Challenger Mitt Romney from Costas Panagopoulos, Ph.D. Department of Political Science, Fordham University 1. PPP (D)* 1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP* 3. YouGov* 4. Ipsos/Reuters* 5. Purple Strategies 6. NBC/WSJ 6. CBS/NYT 6. YouGov/Economist 9. UPI/CVOTER 10. IBD/TIPP 11. Angus-Reid* 12. ABC/WP* 13. Pew Research* 13. Hartford Courant/UConn* 15. CNN/ORC 15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA 15. Politico/GWU/Battleground 15. FOX News 15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics 15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics 15. American Research Group 15. Gravis Marketing 23. Democracy Corps (D)* 24. Rasmussen 24. Gallup 26. NPR 27. National [...]
ELECTION 2012: Morning-after reality: No easy answers to gridlock
From illegal immigrants to defense contractors and millionaires to Medicaid patients, Americans had plenty riding on Tuesday’s outcome — but few were expecting the election to provide answers to the gridlock that has prevented Washington from tackling the big issues The agenda is extensive and seemingly growing longer every week: Another trillion-dollar deficit is looming in 2013, debt has topped $16 trillion, the immigration system is broken, the tax code needs an overhaul, gas prices and unemployment remain stubbornly high, a final decision on the Keystone pipeline lingers, Iran’s nuclear program looms ever larger, and al Qaeda may be resurgent in parts of the Middle East. Some problems won’t even wait for Inauguration Day, Jan. 20. The new year will usher in higher [...]
Why I endorse Mitt Romney
By Karl Gotthardt With polls across the nation opening in less than 48 hours, the majority of US citizens have already decided who to vote for. A small percentage of undecided's remain. Polls can be skewed based on the model used to interpret results. Most pollsters predict a tight race, where possibly the result will not be known until early Wednesday morning. Be that as it may, there should be no doubt in anyone's mind that what they have seen over the past four years has been nothing short of disaster. Given President Obama's record, the question in most people's mind should be, "Why would we given him four more years with the same policies? speaking at CPAC in Washington D.C. on February 11, 2011. (Photo credit: Wikipedia) Unlike President Obama, Mitt Romney [...]
Polling Report: October 16, 2012
by Bob Grundfest With three weeks to go before the election, and with all political eyes on the debate at Hofstra this evening, it's time to take a look at the latest polling and to establish some baselines for the poll-a-rama that will ensue in the coming days. The narrative since the first debate has been the Romney Rebound; the lift he's received in the polls since his performance at the first debate in Denver, and the negative reaction President Obama received after his less spirited effort. Some news outlets are already proclaiming that Romney has momentum and that it's only a matter of time before he overtakes the president in the swing state polls. My take is different. Let's look. The Real Clear Politics Index shows Romney with a 0.4 point lead on Obama in national [...]
What happens if there is a 269-269 Tie in the Electoral College?- Election 2012
With the 2012 Presidential getting closer just a few weeks before election day, folks are beginning to wonder what would happen if their were a 269-269 electoral vote tie in the electoral college. 269-269 Electoral Vote tie - Mitt Romney (red) and Barack Obama (blue). Image from CNN's Electoral College calculator. This week Real Clear Politics and other Electoral Map assemblers have removed nearly 50 electoral votes from the Obama column, leaving just a 20 vote difference between Obama and Romney. While no one wants there to be a crisis in the electoral college, there appears to be several scenarios that allow for such a tie. We came across an analysis article by the Washington Examiners Philip Klein. Here is what he had to say: As Mitt Romney continues to make gains in [...]
Watch the VP Debate Live – Joe Biden v. Paul Ryan – Live stream, iPhone, Android #Debates
By Albert N. Milliron, Managing Editor, Iron Mill Interactive Media. Tonight Vice-President Joe Biden and Republican congressman Paul Ryan will face off in the first and only VP debate in the 2012 election season in Danville, Kentucky . Nearly 70 million people watched the debate between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin in 2008. The debate will be moderated by ABC News senior foreign affairs correspondent Martha Raddatz. Many folks will be unable to watch the debate live on the television. This article will provide multiple alternatives to watch the debate through live stream, smart phones, and satellite transmissions. Vice Presidential Debate 2012 Live Stream from ABC News and Yahoo News: The Candidates Debate Here is our guide to viewing the VP debate live [...]
Did Romney Get a debate Bounce? – Election 2012 State Polls
Did Mitt Romney score a debate bounce in polling? Two separate pollsters show Romney improving in key swing states after Barack Obama’s debacle on Wednesday evening. First, We Ask America surveyed 1200 likely voters in three key swing states, and found Romney slightly ahead in all three: via Romney polling bounce from debate? « Hot Air. Friday, October 05 Race/Topic Poll Results Spread Florida Rasmussen Reports Romney 49, Obama 47 Romney +2 Florida WeAskAmerica Romney 49, Obama 46 Romney +3 Virginia Rasmussen Reports Obama 48, Romney 49 Romney +1 Virginia WeAskAmerica Obama 45, Romney 48 Romney +3 Ohio Rasmussen Reports Obama 50, Romney 49 Obama +1 Ohio WeAskAmerica Obama 46, Romney 47 Romney +1 Nevada Gravis [...]
Analysis: Most Accurate political polls from 2008 presidential election
2008 Pollster Report Card The table below is an assessment of pollster performance in the 2008 Presidential election. The pollsters were graded on both the accuracy of their final poll (popular vote) and the consistency of their polling during the month of October. The overall score is a weighted average of their Accuracy and Consistency numbers. The weighting is 75% accuracy and 25% consistency. Formula details are at the bottom of this page. Overall Poll Score Grade Accuracy Consistency Rasmussen Reports 91% A- 92% 86% Ipsos/McClatchy 89% B+ 92% 79% CNN/Opinion Research 88% B+ 92% 77% Fox [...]
Registered and Likely: A Tale of Two Voters- By Bob Grundfest
A number of polls have been released in the past few days that continue to show the presidential race to be very close. What's worth discussing at this point is the difference between polls that measure registered voters (RV) and those that have switched over to likely voter (LV) models. There's a terrific article by Mark Blumenthal of HuffPost/Pollster that discusses this issue and he comes to some interesting, and ultimately unsatisfying conclusions. From the article: The consistent difference between the registered and likely voter samples raises the question: If likely voter screens applied at the end of the campaign nudged the horse race numbers in a more accurate (and more Republican) direction, why not apply such screens now? The answer, in part: These "measures of [...]
“There you go again”- By Joe Keck
Those were the words challenger Ronald Reagan said to incumbent Jimmy Carter in the 1980 presidential debate. But today, he might very well have used those same words for his own party. Last time around, John McCain was the Republican presidential candidate. Not exactly Reagan. Now admittedly, Obama caused such a hullabaloo in the election that it seemed as though fate had a hand in the outcome. But still, for the GOP to run McCain was, in the minds of many, unbelievable. John McCain? Are you kidding me? Not only is he at best radically moderate, he's also radically flavorless. There's no meat in that burrito, no cake under that thin, basted on layer of icing. It harkens back to the same lack-luster Bob Dole running against Bill Clinton. When Dole won the nomination, the base of [...]
