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Politisite
Political
Projections :
Pennsylvania
Web Posted on
April 21, 2008
By Albert N.
Milliron, Chief
Political
Correspondent,
Iron Mill
Interactive Media,
Inc / Politisite.com
Politisite uses a
Trending / Momentum
Model in determining
possible outcomes of
elections.
Trends: One or
two data points
doesn’t make a
trend. The trend
is your Friend and
should always be
used in analysis
of possible
outcomes. Had
pollsters
considered
trending in New
Hampshire, they
probably would
have had the
numbers correctly.
The problem is
that they use data
that is a day or
two old and they
give percentages
based on the
numbers. Trend
lines are not
used. Real Clear
Politics has trend
lines below the
polls so one can
see how the
candidate is
moving. You can
also use these
graphs to gauge
where a candidate
will be on
election day. When
I invest in the
stock market trend
lines are part of
what I use. I like
momentum. It is
very difficult to
stop a rolling
train. When things
are in motion,
they will continue
to stay in motion
unless there is
proper resistance.
This can be
immediate
resistance which
takes more power
(a Major News
Story) or gradient
resistance which
causes things to
stop, like a
rolling ball.
The Polls Trends
from Pennsylvannia
Figure 1.
Quinnipiac
University
Pennsylvania Polling
/ Graphs by
Politisite.com
Figure 2. Rasmussen
Pennsylvania Polling
/ Graphs by
Politisite.com
Figure 3.
Stategic Vision
Pennsylvania Polling
/ Graphs by
Politisite.com
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