Politisite Political Projections – North
Carolina
Web Posted on May 5, 2008
By Albert N. Milliron, Chief Political Correspondent,
Iron Mill Interactive Media, Inc / Politisite.com
Politisite uses a Trend Line / Momentum Model in determining possible
outcomes of elections.
If you have ever traded in the stock market you are aware of these terms. Our
model is based on the same ideas.
Trends & Momentum: Remember in statistics, one or two data points do not
make up a trend. It takes more than 5 or 6 data points, in this case, polling
data from pollsters. “The Trend is your Friend” is the title of a book on how
to buy stocks by Peter Lynch. Mr. Lynch was portfolio manager of Fidelity
Magellan, a mutual fund that had a 20% return per year over its life time.
Lynch used a momentum/trending model by asking folks who read the book, “where
do you shop”, “what products do you use”. His idea was that if you chose one
store or product over another, other are probably making the same decision.
Why do you like a certain candidate? What programs are they offering? If you
like them for whatever reason, others probably have the same ideas.
I believe that anyone who does polling should go the extra step and look at
trend lines and momentum. Had pollsters considered trending in New Hampshire,
they probably would have had the numbers correct. Pollsters report data one or
two days after it has been gathered. So what you get is data that is where a
candidate was in the past. They do not consider where the candidates numbers
may be. They don't deal in speculation, we do. Our model projects where a
candidates numbers will be on the day of the election. Thats why we call our
model a projection rather than a prediction.
Real Clear Politics has trend lines below the polls so one can see how the
candidates are moving. You can also use these graphs to gauge where a
candidate will be on election day. Why is momentum very powerful? Picture an
snow ball rolling down a steep hill. The snow ball gets bigger and moves
faster as it rolls down the hill. It is very difficult to stop a rolling
train. Here is where physics comes in, what did Newton say?. “an object in
motion tends to stay in motion with the same speed and in the same direction
unless acted upon by an unbalanced force.” An object on our case is a
political candidate. There is immediate resistance like the Rev. Wright
situation in the Obama campaign. Gradient resistance which causes things to
stop, like a rolling ball at the bottom of a flat hill. To look at gradient
resistance take Mayor Guiliani. He was considered the front runner in the
Republican party. He lost 3 contests then took a break to try to get momentum
going again in Florida. The resistance was so large that he was unable to
regain momentum. His big mistake was stopping his campaign through several
primaries. Newtons first part of the law of motion is “ An object at rest
tends to stay at rest” If you are stopped, it takes much more power to get one
going again. This is why the almost dead McCain was able to pass him. McCain
was stopped but won a big primary, South Carolina, this was enough power to
get him started. Enough momentum to pass Guiliani in Florida which has a large
retired population from New York, New Jersey, and Ohio. Guliani believed he
would win due to that demographic. Get the idea? O.K. Now lets get started.
The Polls Trends from North Carolina
SurveyUSA
SurveyUSAFigure 1. SurveyUSA Blue = Obama Red = Clinton
Public Policy Polling
Figure 2. Public Policy Polling Obama = Blue Clinton = Red
Rasmussen
Figure 3. Rasmussen Obama = Blue Clinton = Red
Insider Advantage
Figure 4 Insider Advantage Blue = Obama Red = Clinton
American Research Group
Figure 5. America Research Group Obama = Blue Clinton = Red
Zogby daily Tracking Poll
Figure 6. Obama= Blue Clinton = Red
The data shows Senator Clinton with a Clear lead in November 5 of 24
percentages points. A reversal took place at the beginning of the new year
were Senator Obama and Senator Clinton were tied. Obama gains momentum after
winning the the Iowa Caucus win on January 3. Senator Obama continues momentum
to a 10 point gain after winning the South Carolina Primary. Obama has hovered
in the 50 percentage range since February 11th. Senator Clinton
lost momentum following the loss in Iowa. She wins New Hampshire which gave
her a temporary boost until South Carolina. Her numbers are the only ones that
have changed. Clinton has gained momentum following the Rev. Wright issues and
her coming out with a gas tax summer holiday which Obama is opposing. Oil
prices hit a new high on May 5th. Clinton has gained 5 percentage
points over the last 28 days. Based upon these polls it appears that Obama
number are steady while Clinton's numbers are rising steadily. Recently
polling has Obama up by 8 percentage points. Remember in Pennsylvania we said
we think Obama polls better Then outcomes and Clinton polls lower then
outcome. The case where this conclusion was wrong was South Carolina. North
Carolina has about half the African American population as South Carolina.
There is about 8 percent of voters whoa are still undecided. We think that
Clinton is gaining votes due to recent momentum at a rate of 1.5% to Obama 1%.
.
Conclusion: Obama wins 53% to Clinton 46.5%
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