‘polls’ Archives
Who won the Vice-Presidential Debate? Pick a Poll
By Albert N. Milliron, Founder, Politisite.com While watching the debate last night a scripture came to mind: Proverbs 29:9 "If a wise man has an argument with a fool, the fool only rages and laughs, and there is no quiet". But we were not the only ones who thought that this scripture identified Smirking and Laughing Joe Biden The Proverb seemed to spread like wildfire on the internet, twitter, and Facebook. Having pointed that out, who actually won the debate? Well that appears to be a mixed bag. Partisans say their candidate won. Few undecideds changed their minds. Many saw Biden as disrespectful toward the challenger. We think the debate was a wash. Lets take a look at the various polls that were conducted shortly after the debate by various [...]
Romney has 2:1 Military support over Obama in Military Times Poll
Anyone wonder why the left is not interested in getting ballots to Military personnel? the new Andrew Malcolm story in IBD may tell the tale Results of the newspaper's survey are based on answers from 3,100 military who participated as readers in a secure online poll by the Military Times. If the election was held today, which candidate would they vote for? Romney 66%, Obama 26%. Which candidate has your best interests at heart? Romney 55%, Obama 24%. (Four percent said both and 16% said neither.) Which candidate do you believe is sincere about his stated policy positions? Romney 49%, Obama 24%. What's the most important issue for you in deciding how you will vote? The economy: Overall 41%, Romney 48%, Obama 23%. (The Afghan war was way down in single digits, along with party [...]
Polling Report: October 9, 2012
by Bob Grundfest Tell me that you saw this coming. Liar. With four weeks to go before the election, we seem to have the race we thought we'd have: close, hard-fought, and partisan. It's how we landed here that's most interesting. Mitt Romney received a negative bounce out of the GOP convention and his 47% comments further eroded his support. Then came last week's debate in Denver and the president's implosion, which has led to a surge in Republican enthusiasm that's brought us to today. The improving unemployment rate is also exerting its influence, but so far it's difficult to gauge just how much it's affecting the race. It's likely that we are still in a volatile polling episode and it will take a few more days to determine the extent of Romney's rebound and Obama's reaction [...]
Pew Poll: Romney Erases Obama Lead, Women Shift to Romney
Mitt Romney no longer trails Barack Obama in the Pew Research Center’s presidential election polling. By about three-to-one, voters say Romney did a better job than Obama in the Oct. 3 debate, and the Republican is now better regarded on most personal dimensions and on most issues than he was in September. Romney is seen as the candidate who has new ideas and is viewed as better able than Obama to improve the jobs situation and reduce the budget deficit. Fully 66% of registered voters say Romney did the better job in last Wednesday’s debate, compared with just 20% who say Obama did better. A majority (64%) of voters who watched the debate describe it as mostly informative; just 26% say it was mostly confusing. In turn, Romney has drawn even with Obama in the presidential race [...]
Did Romney Get a debate Bounce? – Election 2012 State Polls
Did Mitt Romney score a debate bounce in polling? Two separate pollsters show Romney improving in key swing states after Barack Obama’s debacle on Wednesday evening. First, We Ask America surveyed 1200 likely voters in three key swing states, and found Romney slightly ahead in all three: via Romney polling bounce from debate? « Hot Air. Friday, October 05 Race/Topic Poll Results Spread Florida Rasmussen Reports Romney 49, Obama 47 Romney +2 Florida WeAskAmerica Romney 49, Obama 46 Romney +3 Virginia Rasmussen Reports Obama 48, Romney 49 Romney +1 Virginia WeAskAmerica Obama 45, Romney 48 Romney +3 Ohio Rasmussen Reports Obama 50, Romney 49 Obama +1 Ohio WeAskAmerica Obama 46, Romney 47 Romney +1 Nevada Gravis [...]
Polling On the Eve of the Debate
by Bob Grundfest The pace of polling has slowed down since last week, but the overall trend is still towards Barack Obama in the swing states. His national numbers are somewhat closer, but Gallup (RV poll) still has him up six and Rasmussen has him leading by one, which is down two points from Monday. New Quinnipiac and CNN polls have Obama ahead by four and three, respectively, and the Washington Times has him up nine. There has been a great deal of debate in the polling world, that has spilled over into the general population, about poll methodologies and whether the national polling firms are oversampling Democrats to arrive at their numbers. My view is that the polling firms are seeing a shift in the number of people who are identifying themselves as Democrats and are adjusting [...]
Analysis: Most Accurate political polls from 2008 presidential election
2008 Pollster Report Card The table below is an assessment of pollster performance in the 2008 Presidential election. The pollsters were graded on both the accuracy of their final poll (popular vote) and the consistency of their polling during the month of October. The overall score is a weighted average of their Accuracy and Consistency numbers. The weighting is 75% accuracy and 25% consistency. Formula details are at the bottom of this page. Overall Poll Score Grade Accuracy Consistency Rasmussen Reports 91% A- 92% 86% Ipsos/McClatchy 89% B+ 92% 79% CNN/Opinion Research 88% B+ 92% 77% Fox [...]
Is the Obama Bounce Overstated?
by Bob Grundfest Remember the Super Ball (if you do, you're old, but that's OK)? The rubber and plastic ball that was wound so tightly that it bounced halfway to the moon when an eight-year-old threw it? That's how big a bounce Obama has reportedly received since the Democratic National Convention ended three weeks ago. It's astounding, and it's driving the Romney campaign crazy. Scores of polls have been released since the DNC and the overwhelming majority have shown President Obama leading nationally and in the swing states that will decide this election. Republicans and some independent polling analysts are questioning the results of those polls, stating emphatically that they overstate Democratic participation and assume that the 2012 electorate will look more like 2008 (more [...]
It’s Raining Polls
by Bob Grundfest The Democratic Nation Convention is a dot in the campaign's rear-view mirror, but the shift in public sentiment it engendered is now embedded in the polling numbers. And that's not good news for Mitt Romney. The one bright spot for Mitt's campaign is in North Carolina, where a Rasmussen poll has him leading by 51-45%. This is a firm enough pick-up for the GOP that the Obama campaign will probably not contest the state too vigorously because there are other states that need their attention. Most of the other state polling over the last week shows the president with small leads in some of the swing states and solid leads where he needs to have them, most notably in Pennsylvania and Michigan, where the conservative groups supporting Romney have pulled their [...]
Presidential Polling Report: September 6, 2012
by Bob Grundfest Two months to go before the presidential election and the latest polling...hasn't changed all that much from 2, 3 or 6 months ago. President Obama holds a small but consistent lead in the national polls and continues to lead in enough states to give him the electoral majority he needs to be reelected in November. Are there rough seas ahead for him? You bet, and Mitt Romney might have discovered a winning edge with his "Are you better off now?" campaign line. We'll be able to glean more from the Democratic convention bounce, should there be one, and the possible effects of Friday's jobs numbers, but we'll need to wait until Monday to see if the race has truly turned one way or the other. For Mitt, there was no discernible bounce from the GOP convention, but my [...]
