‘polls’ Archives
Election 2012: Wisconsin – President Obama 49%, Romney 49%
Wisconsin which may prove to be the key to the entire presidential contest remains a tie less than a week before Election Day. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters finds President Obama and Mitt Romney each earning 49% support. Two percent (2%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) Wisconsin remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Obama carried Wisconsin by a 56% to 42% margin in 2008. The race in the Badger State was also tied last week after the president has led there in most surveys since October of last year. During that time, Obama has earned 44% to 52% of the vote, while Romney's support has ranged from 41% to 49%. Read More
Karl Rove: Sifting the Numbers for a Winner
It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney. He maintains a small but persistent polling edge. As of yesterday afternoon, there had been 31 national surveys in the previous seven days. Mr. Romney led in 19, President Obama in seven, and five were tied. Mr. Romney averaged 48.4%; Mr. Obama, 47.2%. The GOP challenger was at or above 50% in 10 polls, Mr. Obama in none. The number that may matter the most is Mr. Obama's 47.2% share. As the incumbent, he's likely to find that number going into Election Day is a percentage point or so below what he gets. For example, in 2004 President George W. Bush had 49% in the final Gallup likely-voter track; he received 50.7% on Election Day. In 1996, President [...]
Shock Poll – Ohio Romney leads 50% to Obama 48%
The race for Ohio’s Electoral College votes remains very close, but now Mitt Romney now has a two-point advantage. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Romney with 50% support to President Obama’s 48%. One percent (1%) likes some other candidate, while another one percent (1%) remains undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) Ohio remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Based on the current projections, Romney would have to win Wisconsin if he loses Ohio in order to move into the White House. The candidates have been locked in a very tight battle in Ohio since August. A week ago, Romney and Obama were tied in the Buckeye State with 48% support each. This is the first time Romney has taken [...]
New Gallup Poll Should Have Chicago Sweating…Profusely
I’ve now seen three commentaries on the latest Gallup poll, and they’re telling a consistent story: Chigago is, or should be, sweating profusely about these latest polling numbers. And the evidence is they are. The Eye Candy: National Polls. National polls are great and continue to give encouraging news of a Mitt 2-4% lead. The RealClearPolitics average of polls gives Mitt a solid 1% edge. The latest poll in that group, a Rasmussen poll of 1,500 likely voters from October 25 to October 27 (yesterday), gives Mitt a 3% lead. The underlying data show Mitt is winning more Republicans (90%) than Obama is Democrats (85%), but the big news on the national front is that Mitt is leading among independents by 11%. But national polls are really the eye candy of the presidential politics. [...]
Minnesota Poll: Romney comes within 3 points of Obama
As the presidential race tightens across the country, a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll has found that it is narrowing here as well, with President Obama holding a 3-point lead and Republican Mitt Romney making gains in the state. The poll shows Obama with support from 47 percent of likely voters and Romney earning backing from 44 percent -- a lead within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Last month, Obama had an 8-percentage point advantage in the Minnesota Poll. Romney has apparently cut into the Democrat's advantage among women since then and picked up support from Minnesotans who were previously undecided or said they would vote for a third-party candidate. Independents, on the other hand, are leaning more toward Obama. Barely a third [...]
Military Times Poll: Romney beats Obama by a 2-1 margin
The professional core of the U.S. military overwhelmingly favors Mitt Romney over President Obama in the upcoming election — but not because of any particular military issues, according to a new poll of more than 3,100 active and reserve troops. Respondents rated the economy and the candidates’ character as their most important considerations and all but ignored the war in Afghanistan as an issue of concern. The Military Times Poll is a secure email survey of active-duty, National Guard and reserve members who are subscribers to the Military Times newspapers (see How We Did It, below). This population is older and more senior than the military population at large, but it is representative of the professional core of the all-volunteer force. The 3,100 respondents — [...]
Polling Report: October 23, 2012
by Bob Grundfest The debates are done, the swing states remain swingy, and the money is flowing. Must be the last two weeks of the campaign. And true to the divided nature of the country, there are two narratives for the final push. The first says that Mitt Romney has the momentum because of his first debate performance and the new perception, pushed very hard by his campaign, that Romney is really a moderate, not the scary conservative that Obama said he was in the summer. In many ways, Mitt has won his argument because, depending upon the poll, he has become more likable and he's improved his standing with women. Romney's national poll numbers are up and he's made inroads into states that were solidly behind the president, such as Florida and North Carolina. The second says [...]
Polling Report: October 16, 2012
by Bob Grundfest With three weeks to go before the election, and with all political eyes on the debate at Hofstra this evening, it's time to take a look at the latest polling and to establish some baselines for the poll-a-rama that will ensue in the coming days. The narrative since the first debate has been the Romney Rebound; the lift he's received in the polls since his performance at the first debate in Denver, and the negative reaction President Obama received after his less spirited effort. Some news outlets are already proclaiming that Romney has momentum and that it's only a matter of time before he overtakes the president in the swing state polls. My take is different. Let's look. The Real Clear Politics Index shows Romney with a 0.4 point lead on Obama in national [...]
Gallup Romney 50%, Obama 46%
Obama down sharply among men, college grads, and Southern voters vs. 2008 PRINCETON, NJ -- Half of likely voters now prefer Mitt Romney for president and 46% back President Barack Obama in Gallup interviewing through Monday. While Romney's four-percentage-point advantage is not statistically significant, he has consistently edged ahead of Obama each of the past several days in Gallup's seven-day rolling averages conducted entirely after the Oct. 3 presidential debate. Prior to that debate -- regarded as a decisive Romney win by political experts and Americans who watched it -- Romney averaged less than a one-point lead over Obama among likely voters. via Romney 50%, Obama 46% Among Likely Voters. No Bias Here Gallup's newest daily national poll of likely voters' presidential [...]
Latest swing state poll snapshot
One week ago, we took a look at the swing state polls, which were just starting to show some movement in the wake of the first Obama-Romney debate; now on the eve of their second face off, we can certainly see how things changed in favor of the Republican nominee. It is important to note that there are lot of opinions on whether this poll shift is temporary or a more fundamental shift. I ran into a friend of mine over the weekend who does polling for Democratic candidates and causes - and she was indignant that the polls are simply flat wrong. Republicans obviously disagree and disagree strongly with that type of assessment. So, let's take a look at the ten swing states, from largest to smallest. * Florida (29 Electoral Votes) - Two weeks ago, the President held a several [...]
