The South Carolina Republican primary for the GOP candidate for the Presidency will take place on Saturday, February 20, 2016. The following are Politisite Political Projection for that race. We belive that when all the votes are counted the outcome of the race will look like this with a margin of error (MoE) of +/- 3 percentage points.
2016 South Carolina Republican Primary Projections as of February 19, 2016
- Donald Trump – 32.4% (+14.1)
- Ted Cruz – 18.3% (-14.1)
- Marco Rubio – 16.4% (-16.0)
- Jeb Bush – 10.4% (-22)
- Bob Kasich – 10.4% (-22.0)
- Ben Carson – 6.9% (-25.5)
- Undecided/Other – 5.2%
Politisite Political Projections expects that Donald Trump will win the South Carolina Primary by fourteen (14) percentage points (+/-3%). We expect that Ted Cruz to come in second with 18.3% (+/-3%) and Marco Rubio to place third with 16.4% (+/-3%).
Jeb Bush should come in fourth, followed by Bob Kasich at fifth and Ben Carson should place sixth.
Following the debate on Saturday in Greenville, SC which we described as a cage fight at the Peace Center, we expected Donald Trump to fall in the polls. He has remained steady in most South Carolina Primary Polls. Marco Rubio has gained some upward momentum and could possibly come in second over Ted Cruz who has lost some momentum here. The candidate who has gained the most momentum since Greenville GOP debate is Kasich, but we still expect him to finish fourth or fifth.
Real Clear Politics has the 2016 South Carolina Republican Primary this Way
|RCP Average||2/14 – 2/18||—||—||32.3||18.2||16.9||10.4||9.9||6.8||Trump +14.1|
|Emerson||2/16 – 2/18||418 LV||4.7||36||18||19||10||10||6||Trump +17|
|ARG||2/17 – 2/18||401 LV||5.0||34||13||22||9||14||4||Trump +12|
|SC House GOP||2/17 – 2/17||5800 LV||2.0||34||18||16||14||9||5||Trump +16|
|Harper (R)||2/16 – 2/17||599 LV||4.0||29||17||15||14||13||8||Trump +12|
|NBC/WSJ/Marist||2/15 – 2/17||722 LV||3.6||28||23||15||13||9||9||Trump +5|
|FOX News||2/15 – 2/17||759 LV||3.5||32||19||15||9||6||9||Trump +13|
|Clemson||2/14 – 2/18||650 LV||3.0||28||19||15||10||9||6||Trump +9|
|Monmouth||2/14 – 2/16||400 LV||4.9||35||19||17||8||9||7||Trump +16|
|PPP (D)||2/14 – 2/15||897 LV||3.3||35||18||18||7||10||7||Trump +17|
FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 78% chance of winning the South Carolina Republican Primary. Rubio 11%, Cruz 10% and Jeb Bush less than a 1% of winning the SC GOP Contest.
The Huffington Post Pollster has the South Carolina GOP Primary:
- Donald Trump 34.1%
- Ted Cruz 19.3%
- Marco Rubio 15.7%
- Jeb Bush 9.8%
- John Kasich 9.0%
- Ben Carson 6.0%
One poll (NBC/WSJ) has Ted Cruz beating Donald Trump in South Carolina by 2%. The poll has Ted Cruz at 28% to Donald Trump at 26%. While we have stated that we think Ted Cruz could win South Carolina, all polling data we have gathered and using our momentum modal, has Trump winning here by between 11 and 17 percentage points.
Finally, we believe that Marco Rubio’s could finish in second place based on his renewed momentum here..
Politisite South Carolina Primary Poll Projections Methodology:
Politisite Political Projections takes in to consideration many factors when utilizing a particular poll for our model.
We weigh polls differently based on their previous general election accuracy.
We toss polls that have a Margin of Error (MoE) that exceeds +/-5%.
We further take in to consideration the pollsters assumptions of the makeup of the electorate by considering the average PVI for the State polled.
Next we look at momentum of each of the candidates. This is similar to momentum investing in stocks. Yes, in this case, people are corporations to us. We look at the polling data and assign a momentum figure based on statistics that suggest whether a candidate has a positive, negative, or neutral momentum that could translate into a higher percentage outcome on Election Day. This is the reason we call our model a “projection” rather than “prediction”. One could argue for either word.
We have been working on our Politisite Political Projection model for the last 5 election cycles. The above results are what we think the results would reflect after all the votes are counted following South Carolina Republican Primary +/-3%