Politisite Political Projections takes in to consideration many factors when utilizing a particular poll for our model.
We weigh polls differently based on their previous general election accuracy.
We toss polls that have a Margin of Error (MoE) that exceeds +/-5%.
We further take in to consideration the pollsters assumptions of the makeup of the electorate by considering the average PVI for the State polled.
Next we look at momentum of each of the candidates. This is similar to momentum investing in stocks. Yes, in this case, people are corporations to us. We look at the polling data and assign a momentum figure based on statistics that suggest whether a candidate has a positive, negative, or neutral momentum that could translate into a higher percentage outcome on Election Day. This is the reason we call our model a “projection” rather than “prediction”. One could argue for either word.
We have been working on our Politisite Political Projection model for the last 5 election cycles. The following results are what we think the results would reflect if all candidates were running and there was a national election for the Republican nomination +/-3%
2016 Republican Nomination Projections as of November 20, 2015
- Donald Trump – 25.3% (+3.3)
- Ben Carson – 22% (-3.3)
- Marco Rubio – 12.3% (-13.0)
- Ted Cruz – 11% (-14.3)
- Jed Bush – 5% (-20.3)
- Mike Huckabee – 3.7% (-21.6)
- Bob Kasich – 3.3% (-22.0)
- Carly Fiorina – 3.0% (-22.3)
- Rand Paul – 3.0% (-22.3)
- Chris Christie – 2.7% (-22.6)
- George Pataki – 0.7% (-24.6)
- Rick Santorum – 0.3% (-25.0)
- Lindsey Graham – 0.3% (-25.0)
- Undecided – 19.7%