GOP Nomination – Trump is Batman

In the three major polls since the first Republican Debate, Donald Trump is polling anywhere from 17-25 percentage points.  While Donald Trump was giving helicopter rides to children while in Iowa, he was asked, “Mr. Trump are you Batman?” Trump replied, “I am Batman.”

trump_batman

Well that must be it right?  Only Batman could hold on to such numbers with such a large field of GOP contenders.  Trump is Batman!  So what will be Batmans downfall?  In our view, time.

At this time in 2007, In a smaller but crowded primary, moderate New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani was the early front runner.

But, The Donald has committed to put up to a billion of his own dollars into his campaign, basically pushing aside the ability of others in the field to compete.

Trump also has seemed to tap into the electorates feelings toward politics and politicians in general,  that nothing seems to get done, even after reversals in control of the House in 2010 and the Senate in 2012. Unmet promises by candidates and business as usual has repelled voters from the political class.

Out of the fifteen candidates for the GOP nomination, the top half contains the likes of Donald Trump, a brain surgeon Ben Carson, A governor from a blue state, Scott Walker (who actually did what he said he would do), Ted Cruz who continually goes against the Republican establishment and former HP CEO Carly Fiorina who came within 11 percentage points of unseating a long-term Democratic Senator in California.  The Rest of the field is round out by GOP establishment candidates.

So, as it stands right now, Donald Trump is, for lack of better words, the F*ck You candidate. From where we stand, this won’t last too long.  Once the election caucuses and primaries get closer and the electorate begins looking at serious candidates to be the Republican Nominee, we think that candidates like Marco Rubio, will be given more serious look.  A serious look because, voters are tired of nothing getting done, partisan bickering and a candidate who has a more even approach to working with others.

In short, a return to the time of Partisan Tip O’Neil and Ronald Reagan, but with the ability to come to the table and hammer out compromise.

Here is where we see the Republican Field today:

  1. Donald Trump 24%
  2. Jeb Bush 10%
  3. Ben Carson 9%
  4. Scott Walker 8%
  5. Ted Cruz 5%
  6. Carly Fiorina 5%
  7. Marco Rubio 4%

Real Clear Politics Has the race this way:

Poll Date Trump Bush Carson Walker Rubio Cruz Fiorina Paul Kasich Huckabee Christie Perry Santorum Jindal Graham Spread
RCP AVG 8/9 – 8/16 22.0 10.7 9.7 7.7 7.3 7.3 6.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 3.3 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.3 Trump +11.3

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HuffPost Pollster Trend

  1.   Donald Trump 24.8%
  2.   Jeb Bush 11.2%
  3.   Ben Carson 8.8%
  4.   Marco Rubio 7.2%
  5.   Ted Cruz 5.9%
  6.   Mike Huckabee 5.1%
  7.   Scott Walker 5.1%
  8.   Carly Fiorina 4.6%
  9.   Rand Paul 4.6%
  10.   John Kasich 3.3%
  11.   Chris Christie 3.1%
  12.   Rick Perry 1.6%
  13.   Bobby Jindal 1.0%
  14.   Lindsey Graham 0.9%
  15.   Rick Santorum 0.9%
  16.   George Pataki 0.2%

Image Credit: CapedCrusades

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Politisite Pollster provides Political projections based on our Momentum modality similar to that used in projecting stock prices. Politisite does NOT endorse any candidate nor do we receive funding from any political campaign.

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