Politisite Political Projections – 2014 Senate Midterm Election
We weigh polls differently based on their previous general election accuracy.
We toss polls that have a Margin of Error (MoE) that exceeds +/-5%.
The Incumbent Rule is usually used in our model, which contends that undecided voters break for the challenger against the incumbent in the final analysis. We do not think incumbency is a big plus this election and have chose to spit undecided votes in half.
Next we look at momentum of each of the candidates. This is similar to momentum investing in stocks. Yes, in this case, people are corporations to us. We look at the polling data and assign a momentum figure based on statistics that suggest whether a candidate has a positive, negative, or neutral momentum that could translate into a higher percentage outcome on Election Day. This is the reason we call our model a “projection” rather than “prediction”. One could argue for either word.
Our past Projections for each state can be found Here. In this article we will focus on the toss-up states that will determine the outcome of this election.
The following results are what we think the results will reflect when all the votes are counted in each state
- Alaska– Sullivan (R) +3.0
- Colorado – Gardner (R) +3.4
- Georgia – Perdue (R) +2.0 (will go to a runoff as we have Perdue at 49.85%)
- Iowa – Ernst (R) +2.0
- Kansas – Orman (I) +1.5
- Louisiana – Cassidy (R) +5.0
- New Hampshire – Shaheen (D) +2.3
- North Carolina – Hagan (D) +1.2
As the reader can see, six of eight toss-up states are within most polls margin of error of +/-3% therefore, Our confidence level (72%) on of the lowest we have had in each of the elections we have evaluated thus far. Having said that, we still intend to make a projection based on the available data.
We believe that The Republican Party will gain control of the United State Senate and will end with a +7 Seat gain and 52 seats –
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