Florida #FL13 Special Election Results – Jolly v. Sink


225 of 225 Precincts Reporting

Percent Votes
David W. Jolly (REP)
48.43% 88,294
Alex Sink (DEM)
46.56% 84,877
Lucas Overby (LPF)
4.83% 8,799
0.18% 325

Poll: Politisite is wondering who you think has the most potential as the 2016 Republican Presidential candidate

Editors Note:

We expected Lucas Overby (L) to get 3% of the vote.  Instead Overby received nearly 5%.

In the past, when a Libertarian candidate polled at 7%, we would expect that real outcome would be between 1.5-3%.  In the last several elections, it appears that Libertarian voters are now more committed to vote 3rd party and not change their vote while in the voting booth.

No longer can we can expect Libertarians to vote 1 in 3 or 1 in 2 as they poll. That number now appears to be 7 in 10.  Our Politisite Projection model will be altered to reflect those changes.

And now for a Laugh:




  1. FL-13 PPP – Jolly 45, Sink 48, Libertarian 6
  2. The US Chamber of Commerce poll –  Jolly 44, Sink 42, Libertarian 7
  3. Latest Poll: Florida FL-13 – David Jolly Leads

Thanks to Instapundit for linking here:

REPUBLICANS WIN FL-13 SPECIAL ELECTION, despite libertarian getting almost 5%. I kinda figured this was coming when Dems started tweeting this morning that special elections don’t mean anything. . . .


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  1. Saw that. She’d have more credibility if she just… wait… there’s no way she’d ever have any credibility. She’s Anthony Weiner with a bad perm and no webcam.

  2. James:

    Our Politisite Projection model would automatically give the Libertarian candidate 0.5-2% of the vote. In this case the Libertarian was polling between 6-7% and we the outcome would be about 3%. In the last several elections we have covered, the Libertarian candidate has done better than our model suggests. We have decided to re-look at how we calculate third party results vs polling data –

    If you are interested here is an example of our model –


    vs. actual results:


  3. I tend to disagree. To get the elected representatives to take your point of view seriously, you have to make an impression on them, I understand your point about Democrats being worse for a libertarian, but if you always come back to the Republican, you get taken for granted and your views are ignored. For an example, see blacks and Democrats.

  4. THANK YOU, JMK,for expressing a bit of common sense, rare among libertarians. Libertarians in general are SO ideologically enslaved, they don’t realize what a totalitarian noose around their own necks they a placing by de facto electing Marxist Democrats.

  5. I consider myself a libertarian/conservative, but I really get upset when a libertarian almost causes a Republican to lose a political election. Libertarians should realize when they run they could elect a Democrat. Electing a Republican is invariably much better for them. They need to argue as strongly as possible for their beliefs, but when a political election looms, they need to back off and realistically assess what best serves their interests. Follow the William F. Buckley rule, and vote for the candidate who can win the election who will best advance their interests.

  6. Spinning in their graves, that is … they voted for it, now let them try to live with that fact.

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