Politisite Projection – Virginia Governor Race Too Close to Call

Virginia Governor Cuccinelli vs. McAuliffe vs. Sarvis

Politisite Political Projections takes in to consideration many factors when utilizing a particular poll for our model.

politisite4We weigh polls differently based on their previous general election accuracy.

We toss polls that have a Margin of Error (MoE) that exceeds +/-5%.

We further take in to consideration the pollsters assumptions of the makeup of the electorate by considering the average PVI for the State polled.

Next we look at momentum of each of the candidates.  This is similar to momentum investing in stocks.   We look at the polling data and assign a momentum figure based on statistics that suggest whether a candidate has a positive, negative, or neutral momentum that could translate into a higher percentage outcome on Election Day.  This is the reason we call our model a “projection” rather than “prediction.”  One could argue for either word.

While Nate Silver at FiveThrityEight says he adds a “secret sauce” to come up with his predictions for election outcomes, we too have that additional secret something.  Since we are located in the South, we will equate our “special formulations” to the secret formula in Coca Cola.

In the Virginia Gubernatorial race to be held on November 5th, 2013 we  See normal upward momentum for both the  Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Ken Cuccinelli as voters more from undecided to making a final decision before the election.  The Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis has some downward pressure as voters realize that although they are unhappy with the current state of a two party system, have come to the realization that a vote for the Libertarian candidate will ultimately put a Democrat in the Governors Mansion.

Based on pure poll aggregation and weighting, Democrat Terry McAuliffe would win by a seven (7) point margin with 48.7% of the vote.  But by judging past Libertarian voting behavior in Virginia, we think that the 9.2% current polling for Sarvis is overstated.

Based on our careful analysis the Politisite Political Projection is as Follows:

  • Democrat Terry McAuliffe – 48.7  +2.4 (+/-3%)
  • Republican Ken Cuccinelli – 46.3
  • Libertarian Robert Sarvis – 5%

While our numbers show Democrat Terry McAuliffe ahead by 2.4% our stated Margin of Error is MoE (+/-3%)  meaning the Virgina Gubernatorial election is too close to call.  The Real Clear Politics Average disagrees with our assessment by having McAuliffe ahead by 6.7% at the time of this writing.

We have provided their polling data below

Poll Date Sample McAuliffe (D) Cuccinelli (R) Sarvis (L) Spread
RCP Average 10/24 – 11/3 45.6 38.9 9.6 McAuliffe +6.7
Quinnipiac 10/29 – 11/3 1606 LV 46 40 8 McAuliffe +6
PPP (D) 11/2 – 11/3 870 LV 50 43 4 McAuliffe +7
Emerson College 10/25 – 10/30 874 LV 42 40 13 McAuliffe +2
Christopher Newport Univ. 10/25 – 10/30 1038 LV 45 38 10 McAuliffe +7
Rasmussen Reports 10/28 – 10/29 1002 LV 43 36 12 McAuliffe +7
Hampton University 10/24 – 10/27 800 LV 42 36 12 McAuliffe +6
Washington Post 10/24 – 10/27 762 LV 51 39 8 McAuliffe +12

Via  Cuccinelli vs. McAuliffe vs. Sarvis Polling Data

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About Albert N. Milliron 6997 Articles
Albert Milliron is the founder of Politisite. Milliron has been credentialed by most major news networks for Presidential debates and major Political Parties for political event coverage. Albert maintains relationships with the White House and State Department to provide direct reporting from the Administration’s Press team. Albert is the former Public Relations Chairman of the Columbia County Republican Party in Georgia. He is a former Delegate. Milliron is a veteran of the US Army Medical Department and worked for Department of Veterans Affairs, Department of Psychiatry.

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