(Iron Mill New Service /Politisite) – With the beginning of the 2016 election primary season more than two years off, CNN/ORC conducted a poll to identify potential front runners for the Presidential nomination in both the Republican and Democratic Parties.
While polling taken this far out from an actual election are less than predictive, CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said, “It’s often said — and it’s usually true — that polls taken years before the first presidential primaries are mostly tests of name recognition.”
In the Democratic Party contest, Hillary Clinton leads the pack overwhelmingly. Sixty-five percent of Democrats and independents who lean Democratic say they would support Clinton for President in the 2016 election process.
In the Republican Party, no candidate enjoys a clear lead by Republicans or independents that lean Republican, but New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie leads with seventeen percent of those surveyed.
Even the CNN pollsters say that the outcome of the some 1022 respondents was expected and obvious at this point.
So here is how the poll looks:
Democratic Party 2016 Election Support by Democrats or Independents who lean Democrat.
- Hillary Clinton – 65%
- Joe Biden – 10%
- Elizabeth Warren – 7%
- Andrew Cuomo – 6%
- Martin O’Malley – 2%
Hillary Clinton has greater support from women and Joe Biden has increased support from those Democrats who are older than fifty.
Republican Party 2016 Election Support by Republicans or Independents who lean Republican.
- Chris Christie – 17%
- Paul Ryan – 16%
- Rand Paul – 13%
- Jeb Bush – 10%
- Marco Rubio – 9%
- Ted Cruz – 7%
- Rick Santorum – 5%
While Chris Christie leads the list as the GOP frontrunner, only 8% of conservatives would support Christie vs. 28% of moderates.
Marco Rubio, once a front runner, has lost steam. Most likely his falling in the polls has to do with his immigration reform stance.
Rick Santorum still enjoys a place on the list because of his pro-life stance and is supported by social conservatives.
Again, the polling report is probably more about name recognition then any real identification of who will lead the primary and caucus process in the 2016 election. Even so, it appears that the Democratic Party is falling into the old Republican establishment process of selecting its presidential nominee based up who was second place in the Presidential primary. Meanwhile, the Republican Party may be set to abandon the ‘Next in Line’ method of selecting a presidential nominee.
We still wonder if the current Secretary of State, John F. Kerry, still has presidential aspirations? If Kerry leaves before the end of Obama’s last term, one may surmise that Kerry will run for POTUS in 2016. This would probably be his last chance as he will be 76 years old in 2016.
Read the Full CNN/ORC Poll HERE