Politisite Political Projections – Electoral College – 2012

Politisite Political Projections – Electoral College – 2012

Politisite Political Projections – Electoral College – 2012

By Albert N. Milliron

Methodology:

Politisite Political Projections takes in to consideration many factors when utilizing a particular poll for our model.

We weigh polls differently based on their previous general election  accuracy.

We toss polls that have a Margin of Error (MoE) that exceeds +/-5%.

We further take in to consideration the pollsters assumptions of the makeup of the electorate by considering the average PVI for the State polled.

Some pollsters continue to use a model that reflects party affiliation of the 2008 election.  According to Gallup the make-up of the electorate, nationally at least, has changed from a D+11 to a nearly even distribution between Democrats and Republicans in 2012.  Polls that continue to use a D+7-D+11 are considered erroneous.  Now that  is only problematic when looking at national polls.  Since the Electoral College projections deals with state to state polls, we examine the party affiliation associated with the particular state.

The Incumbent Rule is used in our model, which contends that undecided voters break for the challenger against the incumbent in the final analysis.  We do not assign the suggested eighty percent (80%) to the challenger as studies suggest.  Instead, we assign sixty-six percent (66%) figure to the challenger and thirty-three percent (33%) to the incumbent.

Next we look at momentum of each of the candidates.  This is similar to momentum investing in stocks.  Yes, in this case, people are corporations to us.  We look at the polling data and assign a momentum figure based on statistics that suggest whether a candidate has a positive, negative, or neutral momentum that could translate into a higher percentage outcome on Election Day.  This is the reason we call our model a “projection” rather than “prediction”.  One could argue for either word.

Our Projections for each state can be found Here.  In this article we will focus on the swing states we believe will determine the outcome of this election.

Data:

We have been working on our Electoral College model for the last 3 election cycles.  The following results are what we think the results will reflect when all the votes are counted in each state +/-3%

Colorado – Romney +0.2

  • Romney 49.1%
  • Obama 48.9%

Florida – Romney +2.0

  • Romney 50.0
  • Obama  48.0

Iowa – Obama +1.4

  • Romney 48.3
  • Obama 49.7

Michigan – Obama +2.4

  • Romney 47.8
  • Obama 50.2

Nevada – Obama +2.6

  • Romney 47.8
  • Obama 50.4

New Hampshire – Obama +1.6

  • Romney 48.2
  • Obama 49.6

North Carolina – Romney +3.8

  • Romney 50.9
  • Obama 47.1

Ohio – Obama +2.4

  • Romney 47.8
  • Obama 50.2

Pennsylvania – Obama +2.8

  • Romney 47.6
  • Obama 50.4

Virginia – Romney +0.4

  • Romney 49.2
  • Obama 48.8

Wisconsin – Obama +3.6

  • Romney 47.3
  • Obama 50.9

 

As the reader can see, nine of eleven swing states are within  most polls margin of error of +/-3% therefore, Our confidence level (62%) is the lowest we have had in each of the elections we have evaluated thus far.  Having said that, we still intend to make a projection based on the available data.  Additionally, I will include projections by other prognosticators to highlight the lack of consensus within the various modalities.

Conclusion:

We believe that President Barack Obama will receive 281 electoral votes and Governor Mitt Romney will receive 257 securing President Obama four more years as President of the United States – see our Electoral College Map

Related Electoral College Stories:

  1. Michael Barone, The Examiner: Romney 315, Obama 223
  2. Philip Klein, The Examiner: Obama 277, Romney 261
  3. Romney Landslide: Here Are the Biggest Names Predicting It & How It Will Happen
  4. Nine Electoral College predictions have Obama ahead
  5. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball – Projection: Obama Will Likely Win Second Term
  6. Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight: Obama 307, Romney 231
  7. Sam Wang, Princeton Election Consortium: Obama 303, Romney 235
  8. Drew Linzer, Emory University: Obama 326, Romney 212
  9. George Will, The Washington Post: Romney 321, Obama 217
  10. Dick Morris: Romney 325, Obama 213
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About the Author

Politisite delivers the latest Breaking Political News, Debate Coverage, Election Results, Commentary and Analysis. We provide in-depth news with special reports and interactive political coverage. Politisite was a pioneer in internet political news gathering and dissemination. Politisite came live in early 1998 and become the first internet only news source to cover local, state, and national political campaigns, debates and elections. Before there were the terms Blog, Blogger, New Media, or Crowd-sourcing, Politisite was developing what has become the standard in political news coverage, long before most political sites were even conceived. The Name ‘Politisite” simply means Political Website.

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