Unlikely Romney will win Nevada – early voting Democrats have 50K lead

UPDATE: Statewide totals in. 700,000-plus have voted already. Doubt more than 1 million in all will vote. Democrats have a 48,000-vote lead.

A remarkable effort on the last day of early voting in Clark County by the Democrats pushed their lead above the 70,000 mark while another close day in Washoe left that county essentially even.

I will dive deeper into the numbers for premium subscribers Sunday, but bottom line: The credible polls on both sides would have to be wrong — i.e. Romney would have to win independents by a large margin — for him to win Nevada.

This is why registration matters, folks. That 90,000-voter lead for the Democrats could save them from a devastated economy and the president’s negatives. Team Romney’s spin has been that GOP turnout is up from ’08 (it is, but that was a wave election and McCain didn’t do anything here) and Democrats need an 80,000 lead in Clark after early voting (crazy metric).

The Republicans are counting on 90 percent GOP turnout and a decisive indie win — that’s their only chance, and the smart ones know it. Not impossible, but unlikely.

I’ll publish my official prediction tomorrow.

To the numbers:

First, Clark, with mail and early vote:

Democrats — 229,855, or 47.7 percent

Republicans — 159,115, 33.0 percent

Others — 92,717, or 19.3 percent

Read the full story at Ralston Reports.

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