Obama down sharply among men, college grads, and Southern voters vs. 2008
While Romney’s four-percentage-point advantage is not statistically significant, he has consistently edged ahead of Obama each of the past several days in Gallup’s seven-day rolling averages conducted entirely after the Oct. 3 presidential debate. Prior to that debate — regarded as a decisive Romney win by political experts and Americans who watched it — Romney averaged less than a one-point lead over Obama among likely voters.
No Bias Here
Gallup’s newest daily national poll of likely voters’ presidential preferences show 50 percent for Romney, 46 percent for Obama.
The numbers represent Romney’s highest support, and Obama’s lowest support, in recent days (or recent months, and probably ever, though it’s hard to tell given that Gallup recently changed from a registered voter model to a likely voter model.)
Given prior results of this survey, including before the model change during which time Romney was never better than even with Obama, and that only once, today’s results strike me as dramatic and significant.
Latest Political Polls – Politisite Poll Average (PPA) = Romney +2%
|Rasmussen Tracking||10/13 – 10/15||1500 LV||3.0||49||47||Romney +2|
|IBD/TIPP Tracking||10/10 – 10/15||931 LV||3.5||46||47||Obama +1|
|Gallup Tracking||10/9 – 10/15||2700 LV||2.0||50||46||Romney +4|