One week ago, we took a look at the swing state polls, which were just starting to show some movement in the wake of the first Obama-Romney debate; now on the eve of their second face off, we can certainly see how things changed in favor of the Republican nominee.
I ran into a friend of mine over the weekend who does polling for Democratic candidates and causes – and she was indignant that the polls are simply flat wrong.
Republicans obviously disagree and disagree strongly with that type of assessment.
So, let’s take a look at the ten swing states, from largest to smallest.
* Florida (29 Electoral Votes) – Two weeks ago, the President held a several point lead in the Real Clear poll average in the Sunshine State; last week that average had dropped to a tie. Now Mitt Romney’s edge is about 3%. (This is what we call a “trend.”) Every poll taken since the October 3 debate has moved toward Romney as the GOP nominee has led in six of the last seven polls in Florida after the President was tops in 10 straight. The President is not scheduled to campaign in Florida this week.
* Ohio (18) – If Florida is starting to trend towards Romney, maybe we can almost declare that Ohio will (again) be the key state for 2012. Both candidates have spent a lot of time here, as Romney has drawn very large crowds in a series of recent rallies. The big front page story in Saturday’s Columbus Dispatch had an interesting first line: “Maybe Vice President Joe Biden stopped the bleeding for the Obama campaign on Thursday, but he did little to stall the momentum Mitt Romney’s building in Ohio.” The President’s average poll lead is at 1.7%; it was almost double that a week ago.
* Michigan (16) – A week ago, I wrote that “my gut tells me if Ohio is close, Michigan can’t be double digits right now,” as the President’s average poll lead was 10%. In a week, that dropped to a lead of 4.4%. While neither candidate is actively advertising in Michigan (according to the Detroit News), a pro-Romney Super PAC is making a big TV ad buy there. Romney has only led in one Michigan poll since August, demonstrating what many feel is an edge for the President that will be difficult for Republicans to erase.