Ohio proved decisive in President George W. Bush’s victory over John Kerry in 2004, and its sizable swing in favor of Barack Obama in 2008 exemplified the dramatic shift to the left that gripped the country that year. This cycle, the state has proven particularly tough ground for Romney, and much of the coverage of the fight for Ohio suggests that without the Buckeye State, Romney has no chance of winning the presidency.

In fact, even if he loses Ohio, Romney still has a chance, but it would require some wins in other states that have proven tough for Republicans in recent cycles. And an Obama win in Ohio remains a distinct possibility, perhaps even a probability. Even as Romney’s numbers have surged nationally and in almost every key swing state, Obama is holding onto a slim lead — 1 percentage point in Rasmussen, 6 points in Marist, 1.3 points in the Real Clear Politics average.

via The Path Without Ohio – Jim Geraghty – National Review Online.