Swing-state poll shows slight lead for Obama


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PHOENIX, May 8, 2012- A new Gallup poll released this week shows a slight lead for President Barack Obama’s reelection bid in key swing-states that could decide the 2012 presidential election.  In Gallup’s daily tracking poll of all registered voters, Romney holds a slender one percent lead (46%-45%) over the president nationally.

However in Gallup’s new swing-state poll, Obama holds a two-point lead over the presumptive Republican nominee. 

May 2012 Swing State Gallup poll

May 2012 Swing State Gallup poll (click to enlarge)

The key swing states in 2012 are going to be Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and New Hampshire, states that Obama is currently ahead in. 

In the 2008 election against John McCain, Obama won all of the above listed states easily. 

Although Romney is trailing Obama by two points in the swing-states now, these new numbers don’t even compare to the nine point lead President Obama had over Romney back in March. 

Obama’s lead is diminishing, due likely to the end of the bloody Republican primary. Despite the weak good news for the Obama campaign, the Gallup poll also brings bad news to the incumbent president. 

60% believe Mitt Romney will do a ‘good’ or ‘very good’ job at handling the economy in the next four years, compared to Obama’s 52%. 

The poll also shows that 45% believe President Obama will do a ‘poor’ or ‘very poor’ job at handling the economy in the next four years, compared to the 32% who think the same about Romney. 

The economy has been the number one issue since day one of this 2012 election and if Obama can’t convince the American electorate that he can actually turn this country around in a second term, he won’t likely win in his re-election bid. 

The key take away from the Gallup poll isn’t the fact that Romney leads Obama in the swing-states, but the fact that Obama is failing to garner at least 50% nationally. 

Any incumbent president should shoot for at least 50% of the American electorate vowing to vote for them, or their re-election bid isn’t likely to be successful. 

Albeit Obama’s 45% support nationally doesn’t spell doom, it certainly doesn’t equal a second term.  

The American electorate already knows President Obama, granted he wasn’t properly vetted in 2008, they can still come to a proper conclusion on whether or not they want him to continue leading our country.  

If Obama’s numbers do not grow in the months to come, you can count out four more years of a President Barack Obama. 

This November race is still a dead heat. 

Email Henry D’Andrea at writedandrea@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter (@TheHenry)


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