Editors Note: Politisite projects that Mitt Romney will win the Florida Republican Primary by thirteen percentage points
This is good news for those of us that support Mitt Romney, as it means he will have won (or effectively tied) three Republican primaries in swing states (Iowa, New Hampshire, and Florida) and is one step closer to winning the nomination.
Still, there are a few questions I’ll have as the numbers roll in.
Let’s call them the seven “Ms” of Mitt Romney.
- Money: Can Romney win by spending less money? As an expert in efficiency, Romney has spent five times the amount that Gingrich has ($15 million to $3 million) and yet leads him by only 5 to 7 points, according to the latest polling. This is against a candidate that has one of the highest negatives of any candidate ever to run, and that was before the Mitt Romney ads. Romney will have to do a lot better with less money if he wants to make it to the general. Otherwise, charges that he bought the election will resonate with voters. Romney ought to know that CEOs (and candidates) that can win cheaply are selling a good product. He should be thinking more Oakland Athletics (in Moneyball fame) than New York Yankees.
- Mexicans (and Hispanics): 59% of the Hispanic vote is Mexican nationally, but only nine percent of the Florida voting population is Mexican. This share, though it is increasing, won’t be deciding the Florida primary election. Of course, much attention has been paid to the Cuban-American vote in Florida which Romney apparently has locked up. According to a recent ABC News/Univision Poll, Romney has a 26 point lead over Newt Gingrich among Latino Republicans. Why?Because Romney’s position on illegal immigration doesn’t bother Cuban-Americans one bit, because Cubans get into America through a different immigration process (the wet foot, dry foot policy) than through the usual policy of family reunification, waiting in line, or hopping the border illegally. Florida’s next largest Hispanic constituency are Puerto-Ricans, who are already American citizens. It’s true that, according to a Univision News/ABC Latino Decisions Nations, that forty-three percent of Hispanic Floridians felt that immigration policy ought to be changed, compared with 46 percent of the national Hispanic sample, but “immigration” likely means different things to Cuban-Americans and Mexican-Americans.The divisions between the Hispanic community may actually be good for Mitt Romney. He may not suffer the same fate as Meg Whitman did when word got out that she had hired an illegal Mexican to work for her. Romney has hired illegal Guatemalans who are not yet a powerful voting constituency in America (Mexicans, who have militarized their southern border with Guatemala, tend to look upon Guatemalans contemptuously). Romney will have to avoid Hispandering, though.