Politisite provides projections based on a Momentum modality similar to that used in projecting stock prices. Politisite does NOT endorse any candidate during the primary / Caucus process. Further, we do not receive funding from any political campaign. Having said that, here are our projections for the Iowa Caucuses for January 3, 2012
- Ron Paul
- Mitt Romney
- Rick Santorum
If we were at a horse race, we would purchase a ticket for the trifecta or win, place or show. We would also purchase a ticket for Ron Paul to win.
We think Newt Gingrich will come in fourth and Rick Perry fifth.
Iowa Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Paul | Romney | Gingrich | Perry | Santorum | Bachmann | |
| RCP Average | 12/18 – 12/27 | 22.5 | 22 | 14.3 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 9 | |
| PPP (D) | 12/26 – 12/27 | 24 | 20 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 11 | |
| CNN/Time | 12/21 – 12/27 | 22 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 16 | 9 | |
| Rasmussen Reports | 12/19 – 12/19 | 20 | 25 | 17 | 10 | 10 | 6 | |
| Insider Advantage | 12/18 – 12/18 | 24 | 18 | 13 | 16 | 3 | 10 |
National Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Gingrich | Romney | Paul | Perry | Bachmann | Santorum |
| RCP Average | 12/14 – 12/27 | – | 27.6 | 25 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 3.8 |
| Gallup Tracking | 12/21 – 12/27 | 1000 RV | 25 | 25 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 4 |
| CNN/Opinion Research | 12/16 – 12/18 | 436 A | 28 | 28 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 4 |
| PPP (D) | 12/16 – 12/18 | 658 LV | 35 | 22 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| ABC News/Wash Post | 12/15 – 12/18 | RV | 30 | 30 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| CBS News | 12/14 – 12/18 | 291 RV | 20 | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
via RealClearPolitics – Election 2012 – 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination.
More to Follow
I wouldn’t be surprised if it changed completely. Romney will be in the play. Rick Santorum had an 11 point surge today and may do well as a dark horse. Ron Paul’s base will show up no matter what. Gingrich has been damaged during the past few weeks. Watch for some scrutiny on Santorum. It ain’t over till it’s over.
My view was that the strong pro-life base will consolidate and merge into one candidate. After reviewing Bachmann, Perry, and Santorum, I think that Santorum has the longest most consistent record of all of those in that category.
You know my record, I have a pretty good record in this area. Polling and analyzing data is an area of expertise. I may be the only person in the Military that received a model for statistical analysis LOL .
Here is the good part.. If I am wrong, I will say I was sick, in bed, on medication. Just like a politician.
I do stand behind these numbers. I decided on Santorum as third last night before the latest poll. I just felt good enough to write it up. You might notice it is quite short.
Thanks for taking over as editor while I have been ill.
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