Politisite Political Projections: Iowa Caucuses January 3, 2012

Politisite provides projections based on a Momentum modality similar to that used in projecting stock prices.  Politisite does NOT endorse any candidate during the primary / Caucus process.  Further, we do not receive funding from any political campaign.  Having said that, here are our projections for the Iowa Caucuses for January 3, 2012

  1. Ron Paul
  2. Mitt Romney
  3. Rick Santorum

If we were at a horse race, we would purchase a ticket for the trifecta or win, place or show.  We would also purchase a ticket for Ron Paul to win.

We think Newt Gingrich will come in fourth and Rick Perry fifth.

Iowa Polling Data

Poll Date Paul Romney Gingrich Perry Santorum Bachmann
RCP Average 12/18 – 12/27 22.5 22 14.3 11.8 9.8 9
PPP (D) 12/26 – 12/27 24 20 13 10 10 11
CNN/Time 12/21 – 12/27 22 25 14 11 16 9
Rasmussen Reports 12/19 – 12/19 20 25 17 10 10 6
Insider Advantage 12/18 – 12/18 24 18 13 16 3 10

National Polling Data


Poll Date Sample Gingrich Romney Paul Perry Bachmann Santorum
RCP Average 12/14 – 12/27 27.6 25 12.2 6.6 6.2 3.8
Gallup Tracking 12/21 – 12/27 1000 RV 25 25 11 8 5 4
CNN/Opinion Research 12/16 – 12/18 436 A 28 28 14 7 8 4
PPP (D) 12/16 – 12/18 658 LV 35 22 11 6 7 4
ABC News/Wash Post 12/15 – 12/18 RV 30 30 15 6 7 4
CBS News 12/14 – 12/18 291 RV 20 20 10 6 4 3

via RealClearPolitics – Election 2012 – 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination.

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