Politisite Political Projections: Iowa Caucuses January 3, 2012

Politisite provides projections based on a Momentum modality similar to that used in projecting stock prices.  Politisite does NOT endorse any candidate during the primary / Caucus process.  Further, we do not receive funding from any political campaign.  Having said that, here are our projections for the Iowa Caucuses for January 3, 2012

  1. Ron Paul
  2. Mitt Romney
  3. Rick Santorum

If we were at a horse race, we would purchase a ticket for the trifecta or win, place or show.  We would also purchase a ticket for Ron Paul to win.

We think Newt Gingrich will come in fourth and Rick Perry fifth.

Iowa Polling Data

Poll Date Paul Romney Gingrich Perry Santorum Bachmann
RCP Average 12/18 – 12/27 22.5 22 14.3 11.8 9.8 9
PPP (D) 12/26 – 12/27 24 20 13 10 10 11
CNN/Time 12/21 – 12/27 22 25 14 11 16 9
Rasmussen Reports 12/19 – 12/19 20 25 17 10 10 6
Insider Advantage 12/18 – 12/18 24 18 13 16 3 10

National Polling Data


Poll Date Sample Gingrich Romney Paul Perry Bachmann Santorum
RCP Average 12/14 – 12/27 27.6 25 12.2 6.6 6.2 3.8
Gallup Tracking 12/21 – 12/27 1000 RV 25 25 11 8 5 4
CNN/Opinion Research 12/16 – 12/18 436 A 28 28 14 7 8 4
PPP (D) 12/16 – 12/18 658 LV 35 22 11 6 7 4
ABC News/Wash Post 12/15 – 12/18 RV 30 30 15 6 7 4
CBS News 12/14 – 12/18 291 RV 20 20 10 6 4 3

via RealClearPolitics – Election 2012 – 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination.

More to Follow

 

About the Author

Politisite delivers the latest Breaking Political News, Debate Coverage, Election Results, Commentary and Analysis. We provide in-depth news with special reports and interactive political coverage. Politisite was a pioneer in internet political news gathering and dissemination. Politisite came live in early 1998 and become the first internet only news source to cover local, state, and national political campaigns, debates and elections. Before there were the terms Blog, Blogger, New Media, or Crowd-sourcing, Politisite was developing what has become the standard in political news coverage, long before most political sites were even conceived. The Name ‘Politisite” simply means Political Website.

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8 Comments

  1. My view was that the strong pro-life base will consolidate and merge into one candidate. After reviewing Bachmann, Perry, and Santorum, I think that Santorum has the longest most consistent record of all of those in that category.

    You know my record, I have a pretty good record in this area. Polling and analyzing data is an area of expertise. I may be the only person in the Military that received a model for statistical analysis LOL .

    Here is the good part.. If I am wrong, I will say I was sick, in bed, on medication. Just like a politician.

    I do stand behind these numbers. I decided on Santorum as third last night before the latest poll. I just felt good enough to write it up. You might notice it is quite short.

    Thanks for taking over as editor while I have been ill.

  2. I wouldn’t be surprised if it changed completely. Romney will be in the play. Rick Santorum had an 11 point surge today and may do well as a dark horse. Ron Paul’s base will show up no matter what. Gingrich has been damaged during the past few weeks. Watch for some scrutiny on Santorum. It ain’t over till it’s over.

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