Politisite Political Projections: Iowa Caucuses January 3, 2012

Politisite provides projections based on a Momentum modality similar to that used in projecting stock prices.  Politisite does NOT endorse any candidate during the primary / Caucus process.  Further, we do not receive funding from any political campaign.  Having said that, here are our projections for the Iowa Caucuses for January 3, 2012

  1. Ron Paul
  2. Mitt Romney
  3. Rick Santorum

If we were at a horse race, we would purchase a ticket for the trifecta or win, place or show.  We would also purchase a ticket for Ron Paul to win.

We think Newt Gingrich will come in fourth and Rick Perry fifth.

Iowa Polling Data

Poll Date Paul Romney Gingrich Perry Santorum Bachmann
RCP Average 12/18 – 12/27 22.5 22 14.3 11.8 9.8 9
PPP (D) 12/26 – 12/27 24 20 13 10 10 11
CNN/Time 12/21 – 12/27 22 25 14 11 16 9
Rasmussen Reports 12/19 – 12/19 20 25 17 10 10 6
Insider Advantage 12/18 – 12/18 24 18 13 16 3 10

National Polling Data


Poll Date Sample Gingrich Romney Paul Perry Bachmann Santorum
RCP Average 12/14 – 12/27 27.6 25 12.2 6.6 6.2 3.8
Gallup Tracking 12/21 – 12/27 1000 RV 25 25 11 8 5 4
CNN/Opinion Research 12/16 – 12/18 436 A 28 28 14 7 8 4
PPP (D) 12/16 – 12/18 658 LV 35 22 11 6 7 4
ABC News/Wash Post 12/15 – 12/18 RV 30 30 15 6 7 4
CBS News 12/14 – 12/18 291 RV 20 20 10 6 4 3

via RealClearPolitics – Election 2012 – 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination.

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About Albert N. Milliron 7001 Articles
Albert Milliron is the founder of Politisite. Milliron has been credentialed by most major news networks for Presidential debates and major Political Parties for political event coverage. Albert maintains relationships with the White House and State Department to provide direct reporting from the Administration’s Press team. Albert is the former Public Relations Chairman of the Columbia County Republican Party in Georgia. He is a former Delegate. Milliron is a veteran of the US Army Medical Department and worked for Department of Veterans Affairs, Department of Psychiatry.

2 Comments

  1. I wouldn’t be surprised if it changed completely. Romney will be in the play. Rick Santorum had an 11 point surge today and may do well as a dark horse. Ron Paul’s base will show up no matter what. Gingrich has been damaged during the past few weeks. Watch for some scrutiny on Santorum. It ain’t over till it’s over.

    • My view was that the strong pro-life base will consolidate and merge into one candidate. After reviewing Bachmann, Perry, and Santorum, I think that Santorum has the longest most consistent record of all of those in that category.

      You know my record, I have a pretty good record in this area. Polling and analyzing data is an area of expertise. I may be the only person in the Military that received a model for statistical analysis LOL .

      Here is the good part.. If I am wrong, I will say I was sick, in bed, on medication. Just like a politician.

      I do stand behind these numbers. I decided on Santorum as third last night before the latest poll. I just felt good enough to write it up. You might notice it is quite short.

      Thanks for taking over as editor while I have been ill.

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