Latest Canadian Nanos Poll Shows Conservatives Holding the Lead

In the latest Nanos/CTV/Global polls,  Stephen Harpers Conservative Party continues to hold a comfortable lead.  If an election were called today, the Conservative Party would receive 37.7% of the votes, while the New Democratic Party would get 30%, the Liberal Party 23.4%, the Green Party 3.8% and the Block Quebecois 3.6%.  Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservatives won a majority government in last May’s election.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper

Stephen Harper continues to poll highest when it comes to trust at 30.4%, competence 37% and vision for Canada 29.8%   The Liberal Interim Leader Bob Rae has surpassed the Opposition New Democratic Interim Leader Nycole Turmel in the leadership index.  Health Care (27.6%) is statistically tied with jobs/economy (26.6%) as primary issue for Canadians.

The poll was conducted as a random telephone survey of 1202 Canadian 18 and over during the period October 20th – 24th.  The poll is accurate 19 times out of 20 plus or minus 3.2%.

National Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only – First Preference)

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from October 2nd, 2011 (n=968).
*Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters.

Canada (n=966 committed voters)
Conservative 37.7% (-1.3)
NDP 30.0% (+1.0)
Liberal 23.4% (-1.1)
Green 3.8% (+0.9)
Bloc Quebecois 3.6% (+0.1)
*Undecided 19.6% (-0.3)

Leadership Index Questions: As you may know, [Rotate] Bob Rae is the interim leader of the federal Liberal Party, Stephen Harper is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Nycole Turmel is the interim leader of the federal NDP, and Elizabeth May is the leader of the federal Green Party. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as: the most trustworthy, the most competent, the leader with the best vision for Canada. (n=1,202)

Readers should note that Jack Layton, Michael Ignatieff and Gilles Duceppe are no longer on the Leadership Index tracking.

*The numbers in parentheses denote the change from October 2nd, 2011 (n=1,209).

Leadership Index Score
Stephen Harper 97.2 (-17.0)
Bob Rae 49.9 (+10.8)
Nycole Turmel 31.3 (-3.2)
Elizabeth May 21.0 (+8.5)

The Most Trustworthy Leader (n=1,202)
Stephen Harper 30.4% (-6.1)
Bob Rae 16.3% (+3.4)
Nycole Turmel 11.2% (-0.7)
Elizabeth May 10.5% (+5.4)
Unsure 16.3% (-0.1)
None 15.3% (-1.8)

The Most Competent Leader (n=1,202)
Stephen Harper 37.0% (-3.9)
Bob Rae 18.3% (+4.1)
Nycole Turmel 6.8% (-2.4)
Elizabeth May 3.9% (+0.8)
Unsure 21.5% (+3.2)
None 12.4% (-1.9)

The Leader with the Best Vision for Canada’s Future (n=1,202)
Stephen Harper 29.8% (-7.0)
Bob Rae 15.3% (+3.3)
Nycole Turmel 13.3% (-0.1)
Elizabeth May 6.6% (+2.3)
Unsure 21.2% (+2.2)
None 13.8% (-0.7)

Top Issue Question: What is your most important NATIONAL issue of concern? [Unprompted] (n=1,202)

*The numbers in parentheses denote the change from October 2nd, 2011 (n=1,209).

Healthcare 27.6% (-0.6)
Jobs/economy 26.6% (-5.3)
Education 7.6% (-0.4)
The environment 6.6% (+6.6)
High taxes 3.7% (0.0)
Unsure 8.5% (+3.0)



About the Author

Karl Gotthardt - Politisite Managing Editor Maj. Gotthardt is a Retired Military Officer with 35 years service in the Canadian Armed Forces. He spent most of his time in the Military in Infantry Battalions. Karl took part in training for Afghanistan as an Operator Analyst with the Canadian Maneouvre Training Centre. Karl is a qualified military parachutist and military free fall parachutist. He earned his U.S. Master Jump Wings in Fort Benning, Georgia. Karl enjoys working with horses for the last 24 year. He owns six. He has experience in breeding, training and of course riding.Karl was born in Germany and is fluent in both English and German and he speaks enough French to "get in trouble". Karl has written or writes at NowPublic, All Voices, Tek Journalism and many others.

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