West Virginia Governor Special Election Results – Maloney vs. Tomblin – October 4, 2011

Breaking: The Associated Press has called the race for the Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin with 50 percent of the vote.  The Republican, Bill Maloney could only accumulate 47 percent of the vote.  Two independent candidates managed to get 3 percent of the vote.  The Democrat wins with a 3 point margin over his closest competitor.

Although the latest polling data had the Republican and Democrat within the Margin of Error, the Acting Governor, Democrat Earl Tomblin was always in the winning side of the equation.  His winning margin had decreased from 33 points in April to within 1 point just days before the election.

Tomblin has been acting in the capacity of Governor for the last year.  Knowing that he has OJT was probably a good selling point for voters.

WEST VIRGINIA GOVERNOR

Updated: 10-04-2011 22:02:04

West Virginia – Governor
1803 of 1883 (96%) OF PRECINCTS REPORTING
> (D) Earl Ray Tomblin [i] Graph
143,746 50%
(R) Bill Maloney Graph 135,871 47%
(M) Bob Henry Baber Graph 5,800 2%
(I) Marla Ingels Graph 2,771 1%
(A3P) Harry Bertram Graph 1,085 0%

(Source: WCHS-TV)

RealClearPolitics – Election 2011 – West Virginia Governor – Maloney vs. Tomblin

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample Tomblin (D) Maloney (R) Spread
PPP (D) 9/30 – 10/2 932 LV 47 46 Tomblin +1
PPP (D) 9/1 – 9/4 708 LV 46 40 Tomblin +6
PPP (D) 5/11 – 5/12 723 RV 45 30 Tomblin +15
PPP (D) 4/21 – 4/24 850 RV 56 23 Tomblin +33

via RealClearPolitics – Election 2011 – West Virginia Governor – Maloney vs. Tomblin.

West Virginia too close to call – Public Policy Polling

The race for Governor of West Virginia is looking more and more like a toss up, with Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin now leading Republican Bill Maloney only 47-46.  Tomblin’s lead was 46-40 on a poll conducted at the beginning of September and he had led by as large a margin as 33 points earlier in the year.

A lot of money has been spent on attacking Tomblin in the closing weeks of the campaign and that appears to be taking its toll on the Governor’s image.  His net approval has dropped 13 points in the last four weeks from +25 (50/25) to just +12 (44/32).  Attempts to saddle Tomblin with the burden of Barack Obama might be having an impact as well- the President’s approval in the state is just 28%, with 63% of voters disapproving of him.

When we polled West Virginia a month ago Maloney led by 65 points with Republicans and 5 points with independents.  He currently leads by 65 points with Republicans and 4 points with independents.  So there’s basically been no change with those voting groups.  The shift that’s occurred has been with Democrats.  Maloney’s share of their vote has increased from 17% to 24%, while Tomblin has remained in place at 69%.  Maloney has particularly made in roads with conservative Democrats- they now support Tomblin by only a 49-43 margin.

Read the full pollster analysis  West Virginia too close to call – Public Policy Polling.

 

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