Some on the right will take the following Public Policy Polling (PPP) with a grain of salt. PPP is known to be a left leaning polling organization often emphasizing negative results for the right. Here we find a poll where Michele Bachmann Leads but Mitt Romney is right behind and within the margin of error. A distant third is a candidate who has not announced but is developing his team at the time of this writing.
Bachmann 21%, Romney 20%, Perry 12%, Cain 11%, Paul 9%
Raleigh, N.C. – Michele Bachmann’s momentum continues to build and she’s taken first
place by the smallest of margins on PPP’s newest national Presidential poll. 21% of
Republican primary voters say she’s their top choice to 20% for Mitt Romney, 12% for
Rick Perry, 11% for Herman Cain, 9% for Ron Paul, 7% for Newt Gingrich, 5% for Tim
Pawlenty, and 3% for Jon Huntsman.
Bachmann’s rise has been fueled by her appeal to voters on the far right- and their
skepticism about Romney. Romney has the lead with centrist Republicans (23-17) and
with those defining themselves as only somewhat right of center (24-17). But among
‘very conservative’ voters only 48% have a positive opinion of Romney to 34% who view
him negatively, weak numbers, and Bachmann’s capitalizing on that with a 26-15 lead
over Romney, who’s in third place with that group of voters.
Oddly enough one of the best things that could happen to Romney right now is the late
entry of Sarah Palin into the race. In a ballot test including her as a candidate he leads the
way with 20% to 16% for Bachmann, 12% for Palin, and 11% for Perry. 44% of Palin’s
voters say they would vote for Bachmann if Palin didn’t run, compared to only 6% who
say they would otherwise vote for Romney. So basically a Palin candidacy would take a
large bite out of Bachmann’s support with virtually no impact on Romney.
Republicans don’t want Palin to run though. Just 29% think she should enter the race at
this point to 53% opposed to that idea. Even among those voters who see her in a
positive light only 45% think she should make a White House bid.
(Source: Public Policy Polling)
- Bachmann Leads Nationally Among Republicans (politicalwire.com)
- Cain: Romney can’t win (politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com)
- If Romney Can’t Even Stay Ahead of Bachmann, How Does He Expect to Beat Palin or Perry? (conservatives4congress.com)