The only thing I can say about this article by a pollster that I respect is that if Obama is the Democratic Field, in my best playground speak, his flaws are are bigger than our flaws.
Now on to the New York Time article by FiveThirtyEight Nate Silver:
When thinking about the candidates for the 2012 Republican nomination, we can divide them into basically three groups.
First are candidates in a group I’d call the “Fairfax Five,” Fairfax being the name of a wealthy Washington suburb in Northern Virginia. These are the candidates who have the seal of approval of the Republican establishment thinkers in Washington. More specifically, they’re the candidates endorsed by George F. Will in his March 5 column:
There are at most five plausible Republican presidents on the horizon — Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, former Utah governor and departing ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty.
These candidates are playing it by the book, hiring staff and developing campaign infrastuctures. They get more attention in the mainstream media than in the blogosphere. They are perceived as being electable and holding some reasonable appeal to independent voters — although I think Haley Barbour, with his track record as a lobbyist and a history of having made what are perceived to be racially insensitive remarks — is a questionable case.
The counterpart to the Fairfax Five are the Factional Five. They are unpopular with independent voters and, instead, are mostly competing for Tea Party voters and other conservatives that vote within the Republican primary. They tend to be good at drawing attention to themselves, especially on blogs and cable television shows. These candidates are Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, Donald Trump and Ron Paul.
That leaves a few uncategorized candidates, the most prominent of whom is Mike Huckabee — who does not get much love from the Beltway even though he polls reasonably well against President Obama — along with a couple of other odd cases like Rudolph W. Giuliani and Rick Santorum.
When I think about Donald Trump, whose share of the Republican primary vote is rising in some polls (in fact, he’s tied for first in one of them), I think about the Fairfax Five and the Factional Five. If Mr. Trump were going to run for president, it might have been more natural for him to do so as a social moderate but fiscal conservative, touting his executive experience and the virtues of free-market capitalism. Instead, he’s run far to his right, giving voice to false and misleading claims about Mr. Obama’s birth certificate, and reversing his prior, more moderate positions on gay rights and abortion.
Fox News Poll Reveals That Obama Would Trounce Donald Trump
A new Fox News Poll released today found that President Obama would solidly defeat Donald Trump in a potential 2012 showdown. Obama currently leads Trump 53%-34%. Obama leads Trump among Independents 50%-31%, and Trump only leads Obama with Republicans, Tea Partiers, and conservatives.
The one thing that jumps out in the new Fox News Poll is that while the right may have hooked on to Trump as their flavor of the month/next great hope to beat Obama, the rest of the country isn’t into it. Despite all of his birther related Fox News publicity, Trump has a very limited appeal for voters. Obama leads Trump overall 52%-34%. Obama leads Trump with Independents 50%-31%. Obama leads Trump with both men (50%-36%) and women (55%-32%). Obama leads Trump among both whites (44%-40%) and non-whites (76%-17%).
- Hey, who’s up for another poll showing Trump leading the GOP field? (hotair.com)
- Chris Matthews: Trump Is Sucking Air From Romney, ‘Blowing Palin Back To Wasilla’ (mediaite.com)
- CNN Poll: Trump tied for first in GOP horserace… (politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com)
- Donald Trump Gearing Up to Award Obama Second Term (rightpundits.com)