Poll: Top Democrats to lose the South

In their latest look at House races around the country, The Hill sees the South slipping away from Democrats in a big way.  Veterans like John Spratt in South Carolina, Allen Boyd in Florida, and Jim Marshall in Georgia face almost certain defeat, according to the new polling.  With the big dogs dropping, the freshmen don’t have much of  a chance, either:

Nowhere are Democrats more clearly threatened with heavy defeat than in the South.

Nov. 2 looks set to reverse a trend of recent elections that suggested the blue party might claw its way back in states dominated for a generation by the GOP. …

Democrats hold 59 Southern House seats and could lose a dozen of them — helping Republicans toward the net gain of 39 they need for control of the House. …

Reps. John Spratt (D-S.C.), Allen Boyd (D-Fla.), Chet Edwards (D-Texas) and Jim Marshall (D-Ga.) — with 70 years of congressional service between them — trail by double digits, according to The Hill’s poll. Spratt is down by 10 points; Boyd trails by 12, as does Edwards and Marshall is behind by 13.

Throughout the four weeks of The Hill’s polling, the Southern tsunami has been building, and it hasn’t been confined to long-term incumbents, even though incumbency is a negative among likely voters.

The polling, released this morning by The Hill, looks devastating in the aggregate.  Although Republicans only win a 46/42 advantage on the generic ballot in these races, they also have a much higher favorability rating, too.  Democrats get a +1, 46/45, with a -3 among independents, 43/46.  Republicans have a +16, 48/32, with a +14 among independents, 47/33.  In Texas’s 17th CD, where Chet Edwards faces defeat by 13 points, the GOP has a 56/31 favorability rating.

Read the rest of the story at  The Hill poll shows Democrats about to lose the South « Hot Air.

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