Key races to watch on Election Eve

It’s an especially challenging year for dozens of Democratic incumbents. Here’s a quick rundown of the party’s most vulnerable members.

AL-2: REP. BOBBY BRIGHT: The freshman has voted against key Democratic bills and even said he won’t vote for Nancy Pelosi as speaker, but in this GOP-leaning district, it still might not be enough to save him.

AZ-5: REP. HARRY MITCHELL: The two-term Democrat faces a rematch with Republican David Schweikert after defeating him easily in 2008, but this year the tide is against Mitchell in this GOP-oriented district.

AR-1: OPEN (BERRY): With Democratic Rep. Marion Berry retiring, his former chief of staff, Chad Causey, has grabbed the party’s mantle, but he faces a stiff challenge from Republican nominee Rick Crawford.

CA-11: REP. JERRY MCNERNEY: The two-term Democrat’s been a constant target in this GOP-friendly district, but Republican David Harmer has run a strong campaign, and the most recent public polls show him slightly ahead.

CO-3: REP. JOHN SALAZAR: The three-term Democrat’s had easy reelections before, but with the assistance of a GOP tailwind, state Rep. Scott Tipton has made this a tossup.

FL-8: REP. ALAN GRAYSON: The bombastic freshman Democrat hasn’t met a television camera he doesn’t like, and he’s turning his fire against GOP opponent Daniel Webster. But in a swing district, Grayson’s partisanship and negative ads could backfire.

FL-22: REP. RON KLEIN: Tea party favorite Allen West has raked in more than $5 million for his campaign to unseat two-termer Klein. But just weeks before Election Day, West has been forced to deny ties to a controversial motorcycle gang.

GA-2: REP. SANFORD BISHOP: GOP state Rep. Mike Keown was already mounting a strong challenge, but the race became even tighter after nine-term Rep. Bishop faced reports he’d helped family and friends get Congressional Black Caucus scholarships.

GA-8: REP. JIM MARSHALL: African-American turnout has always been key to four-term Rep. Marshall’s past victories in this GOP-friendly district, and he’s betting on high turnout in a midterm year if he’s going to repel a challenge from Republican state Rep. Austin Scott.

HI-1: REP. CHARLES DJOU: The GOP’s Djou made his way to Congress in May, thanks to a three-way special election that split the Democratic vote, but now he faces only Colleen Hanabusa. While Dems see this as a bright pickup hope amid an otherwise bleak map for them, polls have shown Djou is narrowly leading Hanabusa.

IA-3: REP. LEONARD BOSWELL: The Democratic incumbent is in a tough fight against state Sen. Brad Zaun. While Democrats have hit the GOP nominee over unpaid taxes and a report that he stalked an ex-girlfriend, Boswell’s being pulled down by unpopular statewide Democrats at the top of the ticket.

IL-10: OPEN (KIRK): Democrat Dan Seals is hoping the third time’s the charm in his quest for this North Shore Chicago House seat. And his chances look better against Republican Bob Dold than they were against GOP Rep. Mark Kirk, who is running for Senate.

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Here is what Charlie Cook says about the mid-term:

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