For quite a while, Democrats have waited and desperately hoped that the trajectory of this election campaign would change. They are still waiting and hoping.
While things could change in the next 35 days, they haven’t yet, and every day, the magnitude of events necessary to change the course of this election has to be greater than the day before.
It seems extremely likely that the GOP will regain control of the House, but it is less clear whether this election is headed for net seat gains in the 40s or 50s or if the number will be even higher.
Wave elections tend to be pretty easy to predict, but it is much more difficult to forecast their maximum impact. In the past, wave elections have tended to be underestimated. It’s important to know that when you see people throwing extremely big numbers out there, they are just grabbing numbers out of the sky.
The most sophisticated polling is done by top-notch professional polling firms for campaigns, parties and major business and labor organizations.
I shudder when I hear numbers that I have never written, uttered or even thought attributed to me. Those that do so could have their predictions confused with the number of Democratic seats that are “in play,” which is something very different.
In the Senate, there is equal uncertainty. We could see Republican gains of seven or eight seats, but they could be as high as nine or 10. A GOP gain of 10 seats would flip control of that chamber.
This is unlikely, but very possible, even when you take into account the GOP disaster in Delaware, which effectively took a seat off the table for Republicans with Christine O’Donnell‘s nomination. Historically, it’s very unusual to see the House flip but not the Senate.
There is some history for the Senate changing hands and the House staying the same. But when the House goes, the Senate seems to follow.