How many remember the President saying that the Stimulus will bring down unemployment to 8%? He also touted that if the Stimulus was not enacted it would take our economic crisis to catastrophe. From where Americans are sitting, it appears the the Stimulus has done very little to change our economic forecast. In fact, the status has been revised down several times already this year.
Minorities have taken the biggest hit, even though our President insisted that the Stimulus would be far reaching down to the average worker. It appears that the Presidents statements have been nothing more then political Rhetoric as the poorest among us continue to be hit the hardest. The White House now says Unemployment will stay at or above 9% until the election in 2012. Interesting enough, The President said that the stimulus was “front loaded”meaning that the majority of the economic change would come in it’s first 2 years. It doesn’t take an economic degree to see that has not come to fruition.
The White House said Friday it expects that unemployment will stay at or above 9% until 2012, but at the same time forecast that the economy will grow by at least 4% in 2011 and 2012.
It also revised its long-term deficit estimate under President Obama’s proposed 2011 budget: The administration now believes the 10-year deficit will be $58 billion less than projected in February when the budget blueprint was first released.
Under the revised estimates, Uncle Sam will ring up $8.474 trillion in deficits between 2011 and 2020, down from the $8.532 trillion estimated in February.
In the near-term, the administration expects the 2010 deficit to come in at $1.47 trillion — slightly lower than originally forecast and slightly above last year’s deficit of $1.41 trillion. Meanwhile, the 2011 and 2012 deficits will come in somewhat higher than the White House forecast in February.
“The economy is still weaker than we’d like, and [there is] a medium-term and long-term fiscal situation that requires attention,” outgoing White House Budget Director Peter Orszag said in a call with reporters.
Correction to the May Unemployment Chart June 8, 2009
[UPDATE: The chart has been updated with the data through May 2010 here Latest unemployment claims data is here.]
Several commenters both here and at other blogs have asked if the monthly markers shown for April and May are lined up correctly. I had thought about it when I first made the chart, but I’ve come to the conclusion that the commenters/bloggers were correct and the chart was in error. So here’s the new chart, where you can see that the effect of the correction is to move the actual unemployment rates one month to the left.
This, of course, makes the situation look even worse.
I’ve also added more points to show the monthly data since Oct ’08. The Obama team’s graph was plotted by quarters instead of months, so the numbers don’t quite line up.
Sorry for the mistake. At least nobody can claim that I was coming down too hard on Obama’s economic team.
Please do me a favor and spread the word that the corrected graph is available.[FUN UPDATE: On May 11th, Christina Romer (she who made the original chart) said that unemployment could get as high as 9.5%. Any bets on whether she’s right?]