Republican polling firm The Tarrance Group, in conjunction with the Start Over! Coalition (which appears to be an anti-ObamaCare group) has commissioned polling for the districts of eleven Democrats thought to be potential flippers on the final vote on health care reform. The results for the main question, “do you favor or oppose the health care reform legislation being proposed by President Obama and the Democrats in Congress” are as follows, along with the members’ votes on the health care bill the first time around:
AZ-8 (Giffords, yea): 35% favor, 52% oppose, 46% strongly oppose;
CO-4 (Markey, nay): 33% favor, 58% oppose, 51% strongly oppose;
IN-9 (Hill, yea): 31% favor, 52% oppose, 44% strongly oppose;
NJ-3 (Adler, nay): 34% favor, 57% oppose, 46% strongly oppose;
OH-1 (Driehaus, yea): 39% favor, 54% oppose, 48% strongly oppose;
OH-16 (Boccieri, nay): 38% favor, 51% oppose, 46% strongly oppose;
NV-3 (Titus, yea): 40% favor, 52% oppose, 44% strongly oppose;
NY-13 (McMahon, nay): 40% favor, 46% oppose, 37% strongly oppose;
NY-24 (Arcuri, yea): 32% favor, 53% oppose, 47% strongly oppose;
PA-4 (Altmire, nay): 30% favor, 58% oppose, 47% strongly oppose;
PA-10 (Carney, yea): 28% favor, 58% oppose, 47% strongly oppose.
Obviously, any of these Democrats voting “yes” will be doing so in the face of some strong headwinds at home. Majorities oppose the bill in every district except one (McMahon’s), and over 45% strongly oppose the bill in every district except for three.