Clinton Third – South Carolina – Politisite Political Projections – Obama Wins

  South Carolina – Politisite Political Projections

Politisite’s  Continuing Coverage from the Congressional Black Caucus CNN Debate to the South Carolina Democratic Primary

PART ONE – Billiary For President – Four More Years!

PART TWO – Edwards Won CNN Debate in Myrtle Beach : Says Who?

Jan 25, 2008 20:11 EST, Jan 26, 2008 01:11 UTC (GMT)

(Columbia) -(IMNS)- I will make this quick this evening as I am working on part three of our Continuing Coverage from the Congressional Black Caucus CNN Debate to the South Carolina Democratic Primary. What the heck, call this part three!  One free Part for all NowPublic readers.

Trends:  One or two data points doesn’t make a trend. The trend is your Friend and should always be used in analysis of possible outcomes.  Had pollsters considered trending in New Hampshire, they probably would have had the numbers correctly.  The problem is that they use data that is a day or two old and they give percentages based on the numbers.  Trend lines are not used.  Real Clear Politics has trend lines below the polls so one can see how the candidate is moving.  You can also use these graphs  to gauge where a candidate will be on election day.  When I invest in the stock market trend lines are part of what I use.  I like momentum. It is very difficult to stop a rolling train.  When things are in motion, they will continue to stay in motion unless  there is proper resistance.  This can be immediate resistance which takes more power (a Major News Story) or gradient resistance which causes things to stop, like a rolling ball. 

John Edwards: Since the  debate on Jan 21st he is the ONLY Candidate trending upward.  Since the Debate he has been at 17% on 21st Jan to 24% on Jan 24th.  With 6 data points his RCP Average is 19.6% Points.  We see this trend to continue with Edwards getting 27% of the vote.

Hilliary Clinton: Trending downward.  She is trending downward FASTER than any candidate.  Since the Debate she has been at 28% on 21st Jan to 30% on Jan 24th.  With 6 data points her RCP Average is 26.6% Points.  This is a quick sine wave trend short in duration. We see this trend to Tapper here and come in line with the RCP average of 26.6%

Barrack Obama: Trending downward.  Not as steep as Clinton but still falling.  We see a confined fall 2% Points More.  Since the Debate he has been at 43% on 21st Jan to 43% on Jan 24th.  With 6 data points a  large drop to 27% in one poll trending slowly back to 43%  His RCP Average is 37.8% Points.  We see the Clemson poll as an anomaly and believe he will come in 2% points below the current poll of 43%. We see Obama receiving 41% of the Vote.

Our Projections

Obama 41%

Edwards 27%

Clinton 26.6%

Yes, we believe that Senator Edwards will beat Senator Clinton. We are out on a limb, going against all polls. Ultimately Barrack Obama will win with 41% of the Vote

Margin of Error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Heres the bottom line our projections have a Margin of Error of 3% points.  Basically means Obama could get 38-44%, Clinton could get 23.6-29.6%, and Edwards 24-30%. The truth is Clinton can indeed sill come in second.  Obama is above the Margin of error so we see him a clear win.  The difference between Edwards and Clinton is only 0.4% but in reality Edwards could get 24% and Clinton get 29.6%,  the other way around, or somewhere in between.  So our call on Edwards is Paper thin.  But we are going with it.

Here is what others are forecasting.

Survey USA Poll

Obama with 13-point lead in South Carolina: poll

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

CHARLESTON, South Carolina (Reuters) – Barack Obama has a 13-point lead on rival Hillary Clinton but his support has eroded slightly on the eve of South Carolina’s Democratic presidential primary, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Friday.

Obama’s edge on Clinton slipped by two points overnight but remained in double digits, 38 percent to 25 percent, in the rolling poll, with John Edwards gaining two points to climb to 21 percent and inch closer to second place.

The poll has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

Obama, an Illinois senator who would be the first black U.S. president, had an 18-point lead over Clinton in the initial poll published three days ago but has seen his support fall from 43 percent to 38 percent.

Obama and Clinton have battled fiercely over the last week, trading accusations about their records in an increasingly rancorous duel for the right to represent the Democratic Party in November’s election.

Obama continues to enjoy strong backing among black voters, who are expected to be more than half of the electorate in Saturday’s Democratic primary. Obama won 55 percent of blacks in the poll, with Clinton at 18 percent.

“Obama still leads, but the lead keeps going down,” pollster John Zogby said.

In the last day of polling on Thursday, Obama’s advantage over Clinton, a New York senator who would be the first woman U.S. president, was only 7 percentage points.  Continued…

Poll: Obama Leads Clinton in SC

By The Associated Press – THE RACE: The presidential race among Democrats in South Carolina.

THE NUMBERS – DEMOCRATS

Barack Obama, 38 percent

Hillary Rodham Clinton, 30 percent

John Edwards, 19 percent

OF INTEREST:

Obama’s support among white voters slipped in the last week, from 20 percent to 10 percent now, at a time when Clinton and her husband, former President Clinton, have kept up a steady barrage of criticism against Obama. Edwards appeared to be the main beneficiary, with his support among whites growing from 28 percent to 40 percent. Clinton’s support among whites remained about the same, 36 percent a week ago to 39 percent now. Obama held onto his 2-to-1 advantage over Clinton among black voters.

The Mason-Dixon Polling and Research poll was conducted for McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC Jan. 22-23 and involved telephone interviews with 400 randomly chosen likely Democratic voters in South Carolina. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

COMPLETE RESULTS: http://www.thestate.com/presidential-politics/story/295839.html

Clemson University

CLEMSON – Barack Obama holds a seven-point lead over Hillary Clinton in South Carolina ahead of the Democratic primary in South Carolina, according to the Clemson University Palmetto Poll. However, nearly 40 percent of the voters surveyed still are uncertain which candidate to support.

The poll was conducted Jan.15-23 and shows 27 percent of the respondents support Obama, 20 percent support Clinton, 17 percent support John Edwards and 36 percent remain undecided. (Download a summary of the results).

Obama is getting more than three-quarters of the African-American vote in South Carolina. In the previous Clemson University Palmetto Polls, Clinton and Obama were splitting the black vote evenly. John Edwards is receiving less than 4 percent of the black vote in the Palmetto State.

“Despite the impending vote at the end of the week, and the importance of South Carolina in the pattern of Democratic contests nationally, only half the voters had a good idea about who they were going to support,” said Clemson political scientist and poll co-author David Woodard.

An important statistic for the Democratic primary in South Carolina is that slightly more than half the electorate is African-American on election day, Woodard said.

Fifty-five percent of the poll respondents were African-American and 58 percent were female. Woodard said these demographic figures conform to the usual turnout for Democratic primary voters.

The margin of error for the Clemson University Palmetto Poll is plus or minus 4.6 percent.

The Democratic Primary in South Carolina is Saturday.

Heading into Saturday’s Democratic Presidential Primary in South Carolina, Barack Obama holds a large and growing double-digit lead over Hillary Clinton.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in South Carolina shows Obama earning 43% of the vote, Clinton attracting 28%, and John Edwards at 17%. Obama led by thirteen points in the previous Rasmussen Reports poll and has led by at least twelve points in four of the last five polls conducted in the race. (see crosstabs)

John Edwards has remained between 14% and 17% in all South Carolina polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports in January. However, as Obama pulls away, Edwards is now closer to Clinton than Clinton is to Obama.

Among those who say they are certain to vote Saturday, it’s Obama 45%, Clinton 28%, and Edwards 17%. Among those who say they are certain they will not change their mind before Saturday, it’s Obama 46%, Clinton 32%, and Edwards 15%.

Seventy-four percent (74%) of Likely Democratic Primary Voters say they are “certain” they will not change their mind before voting. Just 3% say there is a good chance they will change their mind.

Obama continues to enjoy dominant support among African-American voters who make up roughly half of Democratic Primary Voters in South Carolina. Obama now leads Clinton 68% to 16% among African-Americans in the Palmetto State. Edwards earns just 6% of the African-American vote.

Clinton leads Obama 40% to 21% among white voters with Edwards earning 27% of the white vote. This is similar to the national dynamics as support for Clinton and Obama breaks down along gender and racial lines.

Obama’s 52-point advantage among African-Americans is up from 44-points in the previous survey and nearly double his 23-point edge in mid-January. Nationally, Clinton leads Obama in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

 

The Pollster agrees with Politisite.  They Use trend lines over a 12-14 poll period

The South Carolina polling continues to show a substantial lead for Obama, while Edwards’ rise hints that he could challenge Clinton for second place.

At the moment, Clinton continues to hold a six-point advantage over Edwards, but Edwards has been rising while Clinton has been moving down. Obama, meanwhile, has been fairly steady at around 40-44% support, though with some hint of a small decline in the sensitive estimator. Note however that the Clemson University poll included here had an amazing undecided rate of 36%. That makes every candidate in their poll look lower than in all other polls that have a much lower rate of undecided. The level of undecided is quite sensitive to how the poll is conducted, including whether respondents are pushed as to whether they “lean” towards a candidate. The Clemson poll apparently didn’t push at all among undecided voters. We’d be making a mistake to read their data as indicating a decline of support for anyone.

We think Clinton will Come in Third

Our Projections
Obama 41%
Edwards 27%
Clinton 26.6%

You can see the full report on NowPublic.com

Posted by: Albert N. Milliron | January 25, 2008 9:52 PM

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